NFL Picks: Sunday NFL Best Bets for Week 5

Jordan Sharp

Friday, October 4, 2013 7:05 PM GMT

Week 5 is here and even though we were close to even this past week, a winning week is a winning week.

Our profit margin was small last week. Despite that, let’s see if we can bounce back from a sub-par week and get back to big winnings for NFL Week 5. The NFL odds are out and moving fast, and I have found two games where I see some value on Sunday.

Don't forget to read our Daily NFL Week 5 Betting Odds Report before making your sports picks!

Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Texans and Niners hook up on Sunday Night Football this week, and it should be a very interesting and valuable matchup. The Niners are -6 sports betting favorites in this one, but I am more focused on the total, which is set at 41 points. The Texans have been very good at cashing the over so far this season, and the Niners are great at it. The over is 9-2 in San Francisco’s last 11 games overall, and the two losses have come this season. The over is also 7-1 in the Niners’ last eight home games.

Since Colin Kapernick has taken over this offense, the octane boosters have been added, and the Niners have enough offensive firepower to take on a tough Texans defense. The Texans on the other hand also have a very undervalued offense, and while their defense is shutting down opposing QBs, they haven’t been stopping the run. Marshawn Lynch had almost 100 yards rushing last week on 17 carries, and you can bet Frank Gore can be just as effective.

In fact, the Niners have enough at RB to cram it down Houston’s throats all game long, which would in turn make the Texans pass the ball to keep up. Nnamdi Asoumgha and Patrick Willis both missed last Thursday’s game for San Francisco with groin injuries. Along with Aldon Smith already out, this defense is shaky right now. Both Asoumgha and Wills practiced lightly on Thursday, so watch their statuses for Sunday night closely on Friday afternoon’s injury report.

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NFL Pick: Bet the Texans/Niners game OVER 41.5 points at Ladbrokes 

 

New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals’ defense is in serious trouble in this game, and that’s why I am going with Tom Brady and the Pats in this one. Several key members of this defense aren’t looking good for this game, and most of them are in the secondary. If the Bengals cannot get some coverage against the Pats’ receivers, this game is over.

On top of it, Danny Amendola may be making his return to the field in this one. He has practiced all week, he is reportedly feeling good, and he would add a huge boost to the New England receiving core.

The Bengals are only 1-7 SU in their last eight games overall against the Patriots, and New England being on the road here doesn’t mean much in my eyes. The Pats are 5-0 SU in their last five road games, and with the injuries for Cincy, I would not be surprised to see a blowout here. The Patriots are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 road games, and I think they will add another ATS and SU win this week in Cincinnati. For your NFL betting picks, take the money being given to New England in this one.

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NFL Pick: Pick the Patriots -105 to win on the money line, at Bet365

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