NFL Picks: Struggling Defenses Prompt Betting Seahawks & 49ers to Go 'Over' 41.5

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 10:58 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2015 10:58 PM GMT

Seven of the last eight games between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers went UNDER their posted total. That might not be the right NFL pick this time.

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 21: 21-15 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 14-23 Total

If you've been betting on the NFL for a while, you've probably gotten used to all that money you've made whenever the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers lock horns. Seattle is 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven meetings, and the UNDER is 6-1. All that defense and all that running? Gold, pure gold.

Let's hope you didn't spend it all in one place. These NFC West rivals are on tap for Thursday Night Football (8:25 p.m. ET, CBS/NFLN), but really, it won't be the same. These definitely aren't Jim Harbaugh's 49ers. And for that matter, these aren't the same Seahawks who led the league in efficiency three straight years. But there is a low, low total of 42 sitting on the NFL odds board for this matchup, and our consensus reports show nearly two-thirds of bettors on the OVER this time.

 

***Seahakws vs. 49ers Thursday Night Preview***
***Seahakws vs. 49ers Thursday Night ATS Pick***
***49ers Player Props for Thursday Night Football***
***Seahakws Player Props for Thursday Night Football***

Boom/Bust
Even earlier this season, we probably would have stuck with the UNDER. But we're tired of Seattle giving up so many damn points in the fourth quarter. That's how the OVER got paid in Week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals, and that's how the OVER got paid in Week 6 against the Carolina Panthers.

Turns out the Seahawks defense has an Achilles' heel. We touched on this when we looked at our NFL picks against the spread: The Seahawks are excellent against No. 1 wideouts and No. 2 wideouts, but miserable against other receivers and tight ends. That speaks to the thinning out of the Legion of Boom, where CB Byron Maxwell was allowed to leave for Philadelphia in free agency. At least LB Bobby Wagner will return this week after missing the Panthers game with a strained pec.

 

Tighten Up
So the 'Hawks got burned by Bengals TE Tyler Eifert and Panthers TE Greg Olsen. Does this mean that San Francisco TE Vernon Davis is in for a big game on Thursday? Perhaps, but Davis (eight catches) and fellow TE Garrett Celek (14 catches) haven't done much of anything this year. Having said that, Celek hauled in a TD catch in Week 5 as the Niners nearly beat the New York Giants before falling 30-27 (OVER 43.5).

It's hard to tell from week to week what you're going to get out of the San Francisco offense. The defense, on the other hand, has been pretty brutal more often than not, propelling the OVER to a 4-2 record. San Francisco's defensive line doesn't have nearly the same jam it did during the Harbaugh years; Football Outsiders has it ranked No. 31 in the league in run stuffing and No. 25 in rushing the passer. That's just the tonic the Seahawks need to get their offense rolling – now it's up to Davis and Celek to do their part.

NFL Picks: Take OVER 41.5 at William Hill

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837013, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here