NFL Picks: Strong Betting Trend Suggests Falcons/Giants Will Go 'Under' 51

Mark Lathrop

Monday, September 21, 2015 1:30 AM UTC

Monday, Sep. 21, 2015 1:30 AM UTC

Our NFL handicapper identifies a trend that you can latch onto while making your next NFL pick as the Atlanta Falcons visit the New York Giants in Week 2 action.


In a Week 2 NFL matchup we have the Atlanta Falcons visiting the New York Giants, with the Giants seeking their first win of the season after grasping defeat out of the claws of victory in Dallas Week 1. New Atlanta head coach, Dan Quinn, was able to hold on for a win in Week 1 against the up tempo offense of the Philadelphia Eagles in the second half of their game. Helping Quinn’s cause was Julio Jones, who had a huge game posting a 9/141 line with 2 TD’s. He’s going to be a matchup problem for any defense in the league so definitely a player to watch in your fantasy leagues.

There is a solid trend going in the series between these two teams that are worth taking a look at. The one that stands out is that the O/U is 1-9 over the last ten games between these two teams, a trend dating back to 2000. Now obviously there have been vastly different rosters over that time frame, but the Giants have had a stable coaching staff over most of that time so the system has largely been the same. System vs. System matchups have the ability to exhibit more even results over personnel matchups, which sometimes can be a crapshoot. For example, in Week 1 the Denver Broncos behaved statistically more like the Houston Texans of their new coach, Gary Kubiak, which led to under value against the Baltimore Ravens.

Ok, so what about the new coaching staff in Atlanta? Luckily for us we have some recent matchups to look at between a Dan Quinn led Seattle defense and the New York Giants. They were pretty ugly for Eli Manning! Let’s start with the 5-interception performance he had in a 23-0 blanking at home in 2013. Then there was a sub-200 yard performance with another pick on the road in Seattle in 2014. I’m confident that Dan Quinn knows how to game plan against the Giants offense and Eli will likely have a bad day in Week 2.

Not to be outdone, the Giants defense kept their team in the game in Dallas in Week 1 and forced three turnovers that they were able to turn into easy points. Don’t forget there was 24 points scored in a wild 4th quarter in this game so the Giants had held Dallas to just 13 points with 5 minutes left in the game. This is against one of the best offensive lines in football; regardless of if Dez Bryant got knocked out or if Demarco Murray was making his debut in Philadelphia, holding up against that line was impressive.

The line at this game is now favoring the Giants at -2 NFL odds at Bovada. Basically we are calling this a pick’em game and I have no issue with the line that reflects this. I’d say unless there were some late injury scratches that the line is pretty sharp, although we have the public backing the Giants at 63% at time or writing.

Speaking of the public, they are hammering the over in this game at 79%, which has increased the O/U total to 51.5 at books such as Bovada. A 51.5 line is the highest listed O/U total for a game between these two teams in their last 11 matchups. I believe that the reaction to the Week 1 games of each of these teams has created some value here, and the System vs. System matchup between these two teams will produce a total that will match the recent trend of unders cashing at the window. Wait until game time, as this O/U line may reach 52, then take the under in this game as one of you NFL picks for Week 2.

NFL Pick: Under 51 at BetOnline

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