NFL Picks: Strong Betting Trend Signals Browns & Bengals Will Go 'Over' 45.5

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, November 3, 2015 6:52 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015 6:52 PM UTC

The Browns head downstate to Paul Brown Stadium to face QB Andy Dalton and the still unbeaten Bengals in a big AFC North clash on Thursday Night Football and we found great value for your NFL picks.

Handicapping the L10 games in this series reveals a somewhat strong Trend to the Over with 6 of the L10 meetings falling above the posted Total. But with both games last season falling well Under the Total, is maybe that a better look here? Let’s look at some Totals numbers in the market for this Week 9 game, analyze what these two teams have done scoring-wise and try to come up with a logical Totals NFL pick for our Sportsbook Review readers.


Odds Overview
What: NFL Week 9—Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio

When: Thursday, November 5, 2015

Time: 8:25 p.m. EST/5:25 p.m. PST [Friday—01:25]

TV: CBS, Directv 212, NFL RedZone (US), Sky Sports 3/HD (UK)

Satellite Radio: SiriusXM Browns Broadcast—SIRI 83 (Internet 807)

Satellite Radio: SiriusXM Bengals Broadcast—SIRI 93 (Internet 806)

Satellite Radio: SiriusXM National Broadcast—SIRI 88 (Internet 88)

Weather Forecast: Showers early, steady Rain late. 61°, Winds S 10-15 mph, 91% Humidity

Current Point Spread: Bengals -10 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

Lowest Total in Marketplace: 45½ (The Greek, Treasure Island)

Highest Total in Marketplace: 46 (Almost everywhere)

Alternate Total: Over 39 -400, Under 39 +275 (bet365)

Alternate Total: Over 40 -333, Under 40 +240 (bet365)

Alternate Total: Over 41 -250, Under 41 +175 (bet365)

Alternate Total: Over 42 -225, Under 42 +162 (bet365)

Alternate Total: Over 43 -200, Under 43 +150 (bet365)


Current Realities Heading Into This Game
The Cleveland Browns (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS) head downstate to Cincinnati on Thursday evening to face the Bengals (7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS) in this AFC North Week 9 showdown from Paul Brown Stadium in which QB Andy Dalton (20-13-3 ATS at Home) and the hosts will try to stay unbeaten while Josh McCown and the visitors will try to keep their now fading season alive. The Bengals (10/1 NFL odds to win Super Bowl, Coral) are coming off an impressive 16-10 Win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh at Heinz Field in Week 8 action while the Browns played a valiant 1st Half before succumbing and failing to cover ATS to the Arizona Cardinals at Home in Cleveland last Sunday.

The Browns (500/1 to win Super Bowl, bet365) currently has the third-worst statistical Defense in the NFL, having allowed 3,239 Total Yards and a nasty average of 405.4 ypg. So expect the Bengals and Dalton to put up at least 30 points here at Home, almost showing off on national TV while beating an intrastate rival at Home in prime-time. Why? Cincinnati is loaded on Offense with talented Skill Position Players like RBs Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, WRs A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu and WR Brandon Tate and TE Tyler Eifert.

The Bengals currently rank #14 in Total Offense (2,758 yards, 28.3 ppg) while the Browns are a surprising 11th (2,803 yards, 20.9 ppg). And as you can see from the numbers, Cleveland has more overall yards than Cincinnati but the Bengals are much better at putting the ball in the End Zone. Here are the Final Scores, posted closing Totals and Over/Under results from the last 10 Regular Season meetings in this Browns-Bengals series.


Totals Results in the L10 Meetings Between Cleveland Browns-Cincinnati Bengals
2014—@ Bengals 30 Browns 0
Total: 43½
Result: Under

2014—Browns 24 @ Bengals 3
Total: 46½
Result: Under

2013—@ Bengals 41 Browns 20
Total: 40
Result: Over

2013—@ Browns 17 Bengals 6
Total: 43
Result: Under

2012—@ Browns 34 Bengals 24 
Total: 42
Result: Over

2012—@ Bengals 34 Browns 27
Total: 39½
Result: Over

2011—@ Bengals 23 Browns 20 
Total: 38
Result: Over

2011—Bengals 27 @ Browns 17
Total: 36½
Result: Over

2010—@ Bengals 19 Browns 17 
Total: 41
Result: Under

2010—@ Browns 23 Bengals 20
Total: 37
Result: Over


Recent Series Trends and Realistic Game Expectations
The Final Scores for the L10 meetings between these two blue-collar AFC North teams shows a tally of 6 Overs and 4 Unders in this series with both games last season going well Under the posted Totals and averaging just 28.5 ppg. There could be those 56 scored here. Last year in this game here in the Queen City, the Browns upset the Bengals 24-6 as 3-point underdogs while Cincinnati and QB Andy Dalton (20-13-4 ATS on Road) got revenge in Cleveland in Week 16, shutting out the host Browns, 30-0 and getting 2½ points as an underdog to boot. On Thursdays, Cincinnati (198 PF-132 PA) is 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS while Cleveland (167 PF-216 PA) is 3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS and 3-1 ATS on the Road.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook lined this one an aggressive Bengals -10 in its NFL Games of the Year while the Advanced Line here was 9½. Expect the Browns to push Cincinnati, although the hosts are an impressive 15-4-2 ATS in their L21 games here at Home in Cincinnati and this should be a track meet with the Over (46, 5Dimes) the definite pick from the Totals perspective.

And a far as Totals Trends outside of the recent series one we’ve identified over the L10, the Over is an impressive 7-1 ATS in the L8 Browns games overall and is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 Browns Week 8 games. With the Browns 2-6 SU and so desperate, yet decent enough to be able to Pass the pigskin with WRs Gary Barnidge (7 Receptions, 53 yards, TD vs. Cardinals), dependable WR Brian Hartline (4 Receptions, 32 yards, 2 TDs vs Cardinals), Duke Johnson (2 receptions, 68 yards), Taylor Gabriel, Travis Benjamin, Isaiah Crowell and others, this team is healthy and deep enough to be able to score around 2-3 TDs and kick 2-3 FGs here in this Buckeye State showdown.

And expect Cleveland with backup Johnny Manziel to go in here thinking it’s going to be the team to knock Cincinnati from the ranks of the unbeaten. That mentality should create a frenzied and high-scoring pace here.

Predicted Final Score: Bengals 37 Browns 23

NFL Picks: Over 45½ at The Greek

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