A productive Week 5 on my prop NFL picks as I hit on 'OVER' 9 FGs missed & that Dallas' Greg Hardy would have at least a half-sack vs. the Patriots. Here are my picks for some special props for Week 6.
How Many Times Will "Deflate," "Deflated," "Deflating" or "Deflategate" Be Said Sunday Night On NBC?
As of this writing, this is the only Bovada NFL odds special that will be resolved this week. That's a bit surprising. The 'over/under' for this prop is 2.5 times during the Sunday night NBC telecast. It's from kickoff until the final whistle but not including halftime -- those are important designations. Of course Sunday night's game is New England at Indianapolis, the first meeting between the teams since last season's AFC Championship Game. That will always be remembered for the Patriots allegedly tampering with the footballs, although it wouldn't have made a lick of difference as they won 45-7 -- and dominated in the second half when the footballs supposedly were inflated properly. Of course "Deflategate" was the biggest story line of the NFL offseason. If the four-game suspension of Patriots QB Tom Brady hadn't been overturned by a federal judge, this would have been his first game back and against the team that turned the Patriots in. Can you imagine what the ratings and betting action would have been? Both still will be massive. I guarantee you both teams want to embarrass the other here.
NFL Free Pick: Way 'UNDER.' Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth might mention it once at the beginning, but they will let the pre-game guys handle all that stuff. Michaels and Collinsworth care about what happens on the field.
How Many Teams Will Be Playing In Los Angeles In 2016?
Zero is +150 and one are both +150. Two is +500 on NFL picks. The NFL owners recently met and heard pitches from the owners of the St. Louis Rams, San Diego Chargers and Oakland Raiders about a move to L.A. There's no chance all three go. It's not expected any decision will come until January. Colts owner Jim Irsay said a little over a week ago there was a "high likelihood" that one or two teams would be playing in L.A. -- at a temporary site while a new stadium is being built -- in 2016. Apparently, NFL owners favor the plan of the Chargers and Raiders potentially sharing a stadium in Carson. Either proposal will require the support of at least three-quarters, or 24, of the owners. A vote will occur as early as January, but probably no later than March. St. Louis and San Diego are fighting to get new stadiums built and keep their teams.
NFL Free Pick: The Raiders are goners for next year. I think the NFL will delay a move on the Rams or Chargers until 2017 and let the stadium situations play out. So take one.
Will Charles Woodson Lead NFL In Interceptions This Season?
Yes is +500 and no -800. The Raiders' Woodson, a lock future Hall of Famer and still the only defensive player to win a Heisman Trophy, had two interceptions in a Week 5 loss to Denver. Woodson, who turned 39 years old on Oct. 7, is the only player in NFL history with two interceptions in a game at age 39 or older. He is one of three players in NFL history with an interception at age 39 or older, joining Darrell Green and Clay Matthews Jr. Woodson now has 64 career interceptions, tied with Ed Reed for sixth on the all-time list. Woodson is tied with Carolina's Josh Norman with four picks on the year.
NFL Free Picks: No. Woodson has finished with more than four picks in a season just once in the past five years. Nice start to the season, but he also may start to break down physically.
Will Sean Payton Be The Saints' Coach In 2016?
Yes is +150 and no -200. Payton has been incredibly successful in New Orleans, including leading the franchise to its only Super Bowl title. But sometimes a guy can stay at a place too long and Payton has been there since 2006. In addition, he is one of the NFL's highest-paid coaches and it appears the Saints are in a rebuilding mode. No reason to pay Payton all that money if contention isn't a realistic goal for a few years. The Saints could probably get a pretty good draft pick for Payton if they traded him this offseason. You already hear the Miami Dolphins would be interested. Maybe the Indianapolis Colts too.
NFL Free Pick: NO!