NFL Picks: Side With Under Week 7 for Buccaneers vs. Redskins

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, October 21, 2015 7:19 PM GMT

Rookie Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers head to FedExField this Sunday to face the Washington Redskins in an NFC game which will be a tough loss for either squad.

Odds Overview Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Redskins
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 110 PF-148 PA) head up the Atlantic coast to FedExField to face the Washington Redskins (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS, 117 PF-138 PA) in this Week 7 NFC inter-divisional on Sunday afternoon from Landover, Maryland. Currently (Tuesday morning), the Redskins are 3½-point favorites (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) in sportsbooks online, Offshore and here in Las Vegas with the Total in this game at 43½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). On the Money Line, favorite Washington is priced at -179 with Tampa Bay priced at +161 on the takeback (Pinnacle) while the Washington Redskins Team Total has been set at 23½ (-110 Over and Under, Ladbrokes) for this game while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Total is at 20 (Ladbrokes). The First Half Total markets haven’t opened up yet for this or any of the other 13 NFL games this week. The Overtime prop bet here is Yes +550, No -1,200 (Paddy Power).

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers already have as many Wins (2) as they did all last season (2-14), and Head Coach Lovie Smith (9-12 ATS) and the Buccaneers will be heading in here off 13 Days of Rest having their Open Date in Week 6, so Rookie QB and No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, Jameis Winston (Florida State) have had more than enough time to come up with a decent game plan against the beatable Redskins. But even though Winston (82 completions, 1,174 yards, 7 TDs) and the Buccaneers (19-50 SU L4+ years) look much better on Offense this season, putting up 38 and 23 points in their L2 games, although the 38 was against the Jaguars—maybe the worst team in the NFL—and the Buccaneers (5.4 Yards per Play, #16 in NFL) ability to stop opponents on Defense (410 Points Allowed last season) will ultimately define how well this season went. On Offense Tampa Bay (277 Points was the lowest total in the NFC last season) looks better with Winston in charge, although he still has some major flaws, but with RB Doug Martin (90 rushes, 405 yards, 2 TDs)—who has two straight 100+ yard Rushing games (105, 123), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (7 receptions, 139 yards, 2 TDs), WR Vincent Jackson (20 receptions, 306 yards, 2 TDs, 15.3 ypc), WR Mike Evans (13 receptions, 174 yards, 13.3 ypc), RB Charles Sims (14 receptions, 193 yards, 2 TDs, 13.8 ypc), WR Louis Murphy and other, winston is surrounded by enough talent to make his Rookie transition easier. On the Injury front, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Shoulder), C Evan Smith (Ankle), CB Johnathan Banks (Knee), TE Luke Stocker (Hip), G Logan Mankins (Groin), WR Russell Shepard (Ankle) and S Chris Conte (Ankle) are all listed as Questionable for this game.

 

Washington Redskins
The Washington Redskins head into this game off a 34-20 Loss to the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium last Sunday and are a little bit beat up with speedy WR DeSean Jackson (Hamstring), TE Jordan Reed (Quad), DB DeAngelo Hall and CB Chris Culliver all Out; Florida Rookie Matt Jones (Day-to-Day) and RB Chris Thompson (Questionable) both banged up; and, WR Pierre Garçon, WR Andre Roberts and CB Bashaud Breeland all listed as Probable for Washington (4-12 in 2104, 301- PF-438 PA last season) for this game again Tampa Bay on Sunday. So, QB Kirk Cousins will have to do what he can with what he has, so that means RB Alfred Morris (43 rushes, 180 yards), WR Jamison Crowder, WR Garçon, WR Ryan Grant and others will have to be productive as possible or this game could be an sad upset for the hosts. And Washington really was poor on Offense against the Jets, although along with the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, the Jets may have one of the best Defenses in the league. In Week 6, the Redskins leading Rusher (Morris) had just 41 yards on 21 carries (1.9 ypc) while the team’s leading Receiver (Crowder) had only 4 catches for 40 yards in the Loss. Washington QB Cousins was just 25/43 with 1 TD and 2 Interceptions against the Jets, so, as well as Tampa Bay has scored in its L2 games, Washington’s Defense had better be on its best behavior here.

 

Series Numbers, Recent Relevant Trends and Game Expectations
With two straight 100+-yard Rushing games, expect the Buccaneers to give the football to RB Martin a lot early on here, and having both Jackson and Evans at WR gives Buccaneers QB Winston much better Skill Position targets but the big problem is that the Tampa Bay QB is a raw Rookie and the speed of the pro game is so much more than what the former Seminoles Heisman Trophy winner saw in College. So it the Buccaneers Offense can flow, they can maybe win here but this isn’t a team known for winning on the Road. The last meeting between these two was in 2012 at Tampa where the Redskins won outright, 24-22, as 2-point underdogs, while the last meeting here in Landover, the Redskins were surprised, 31-7 by Tampa Bay as 7-point favorites. Washington (5.0 ypp, #30 in NFL) is just 1-3-2 ATS over the L6 in this series and will need a good game from Cousins and the Offense. Because the Buccaneers have played three relatively high-scoring games (56, 45 and 59 points) in their meetings with perceived “Bad” teams (Titans, Saints, Jaguars) and because Tampa Bay’s last two games (Panthers, Jaguars) saw 60 and 59 points, backing the Over here with your NFL Pick seems like the safest angle in a competitive game where both teams should score a couple of TDs and end with 2 or 3 FGs.

 

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Redskins 24 Buccaneers 23

NFL WEEK 7 PICK: Over 42 -133 (Bet365)