NFL Picks: Side With 49ers to Cover +13.5 vs. Seahawks

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, November 21, 2015 1:34 AM GMT

Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015 1:34 AM GMT

In this article we preview Sunday's NFC West game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks to provide our Big Dog of the Week NFL pick.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) 4:25 EST
The San Francisco 49ers visit the Seattle Seahawks for this 4:25 ET kickoff. In week 7 of the season, Seattle visited San Francisco, and as 4 point favorite convincingly pounded the 49ers, 20-3, in a contest that was not even as close as the final score. What is to keep that from happening again with a victory that finds the Seahawks raising their series record to 8-0-1 ATS.

 

Seattle Seahawks
I would not be staying true to my convictions if I were to back the Seattle Seahawks at this point in the season. At the start of the year, I staunchly averred that the Seahawks were in for a downer. There were internal conflicts, player holdouts, and lots of bad vibes from the nature of the Super Bowl loss to New England last year. That has played out true to my prediction with a 2-6 ATS record following a three year run in which the Seahawks recorded a 37-19 ATS record, nearly unheard of in this day of NFL parity. Well aware that they are outgaining foes 352-303, and have a 6.0 to 5.1 YP play edge. But the score board reads an average margin of only 22-20, as the Seahawks have now blown five fourth quarter leads after their loss to Arizona last week. 

That came on their normally strong home field, where after making a miraculous comeback to lead Arizona, allowed the Cards to score the next 14 points for a 39-32 victory. In that game, the Seahawks were one of only seven teams in NFL play last week who had a +2 or more turnover margin and failed to win the game. Not good! Some may point to the 14-3 ATS division record on this field, but at inflated numbers such as this (remember, Seattle has only one more win than San Francisco this year), this number is simply out of sight.

 

San Francisco 49ers
We are well aware that the San Francisco 49ers enter on a 4-11 ATS run (though 4-5 ATS this year), and that their average road loss has been by 22 PPG with an average yardage deficit of 170 YPG. But the installation of QB Gabbert for QB Kaepernick, whose confidence had become totally blown, resulted in a 17-16 win over Atlanta two weeks ago. Those good feelings will do wonders for an underperforming team when given two weeks to prepare for a huge divisional revenge rematch.

I invite you to put these overinflated NFL odds in your favor and join me with my Big Dog NFL pick of the week on the San Francisco 49ers.

NFL Picks: 49ers +13.5 at 5Dimes

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