NFL Picks: Sharps Still High on Patriots (–14.5) in Week 9?

Jason Lake

Sunday, November 8, 2015 1:32 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 8, 2015 1:32 PM UTC

Who says you can't bet on a double-digit fave? The sharps have the New England Patriots in their Week 9 football picks, if these consensus reports are accurate.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 7: 27-21-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 18-27 Total

When is a sharp pick not a sharp pick? When it's on the New England Patriots, of course. The Pats are so good, they draw money from both sharps and squares – which appears to be the case once again for Sunday's matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) at Foxborough between New England and Washington. The Patriots are laying at least 14 points as we go to press, but our consensus reports show 55 percent of bettors on the defending champs, supplying over 81 percent of the action.

Good gravy. The Patriots might have the Vince Lombardi Trophy, but Washington has something much more special: the Week 9 BeeVee Award. In case you missed it, New England is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when laying over 14 points; you can get Washington as high as +15 on our NFL odds board at press time. By the way, there was a slight 53-percent lean toward D.C. at the open. Ideally, we'd like to see a consistent “signature” in the betting numbers before we label a pick sharp or square. This one has elements of both.

Brighter Than a Thousand Simoleons
Which brings us to Sunday's late matinee (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX) between the Atlanta Falcons and the San Francisco 49ers. Just about everything in the numbers points to the Falcons (–7 away) as the sharp pick: an overwhelming 69-percent consensus with 98 percent of the action, for an average bet size of $1,150. Compare and contrast to the $155 average bet on New England.

But even in this situation, there are obviously some sharps out there who are sticking with the home dogs, maybe out of principle. Our expanded surveys show four $1,000+ bets on San Francisco; that's one fewer than Atlanta has drawn, but it's still indicative of some sharp contratian action. The Niners are available at +7.5, and beating them by more than a touchdown could be difficult on what figures to be a soggy and knee-shredding afternoon at the Field of Distressed Jeans.

Rocky Mountain High Rollers
Here's an NFL pick that most sharps seem to agree on: the Denver Broncos. They've steadily brought in around two-thirds of bettors for Sunday's contest with the Indianapolis Colts, moving from –3 road faves at the open to –5.5 as we go to press. Over 95 percent of the action is on Denver for a very healthy average bet of $844.

People are still betting on the Colts, though. We're looking at four $1000+ bets on Indianapolis, maybe again out of principle. But if you're thinking about taking a flyer on a wounded home dog, San Francisco seems like the better option. The Colts are in almost as much disarray as the Niners, and one more loss could send Chuck Pagano to the bread lines. Maybe Bruce Arians can find a job for him in Arizona.

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