After the yo-yo results from the first three weeks, sharp bettors are walking the dog with their Week 4 NFL picks. Some of these dogs have more bite than others, though.
Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 3: 13-7 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 7-9 Total
Things seem pretty quiet out there. It's Saturday afternoon as we go to press, and judging by our expanded consensus reports, people are slow with their NFL picks this week. We expect recreational bettors to come in late, of course. But if I'm interpreting these numbers correctly, the sharps have been biding their time, too.
Perhaps they see some lines on our NFL odds board that might move in their favor before kick-off. This is definitely a week to bet on the underdogs, after so many of last week's public favorites paid off. The biggest dog on the board happens to have the biggest average bet size according to our surveys. Ladies and gentlemen, are you ready to bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars?
When it comes to the number of wagers being placed, Sunday's matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) between the Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts is one of the least busy games on the schedule. Sharps don't always bet the Jags, but when they do, they prefer to bet big. We're looking at an average bet of $640 on Jacksonville as a 9.5-point road dog. Over 86 percent of the money is on the Jaguars, even though it's coming from the pockets of 54 percent of bettors.
This is the kind of game that might make it to Jags +10 by kick-off. Indianapolis is one of the most popular teams on the public money charts despite honking all three of its games ATS. Recreational bettors might be spooked this week after Andrew Luck was downgraded to questionable with a shoulder issue; however, there hasn't been any panic over whether Luck will actually play or not. We're still a bit gun-shy about recommending Jacksonville this week, after the Colts made some positive changes on the offensive line, but it's hard to argue with all that sharp money.
There's a bit less certainty among the sharps when it comes to the second-largest underdog for Week 4. The San Francisco 49ers are available at anywhere between +7 and +9 for Sunday's late matinee (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX) against the Green Bay Packers. Mind you, the Niners are playing at home this week, so you could argue they're even bigger underdogs than Jacksonville.
They're certainly not playing as well as the Jags, which is saying a lot. And while there's obviously some sharp action on San Fran, the confidence just isn't the same. Our consensus numbers show 40 percent of bettors laying over 43 percent of the action on the home side; the average bet on the Niners is just $76. That's 10 bucks more than the Packers are pulling in, but still not the stuff of bad Vegas movies. Caveat emptor, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.