NFL Picks: Sharps Go Heavy On Giants For Sunday Night Football

Jason Lake

Sunday, December 27, 2015 11:47 AM GMT

Sunday, Dec. 27, 2015 11:47 AM GMT

The New York Giants are the hottest commodity on the Week 16 NFL odds board, and it isn't even close. They're 7-point road dogs against the Minnesota Vikings on SNF.

Jason's 2015 record as of Dec. 26: 49-48-3 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 25-32-1 Total

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Free NFL Pick: Giants +7
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Everything looks so much better from up above. Look at how profitable the New York Giants (6-8 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) and Minnesota Vikings (9-5 SU, 11-3 ATS) have been this year. Marvelous, but how many people decided at the start of the season to put the Giants and Vikings in their NFL picks every week? These aren't index funds we're talking about here – these are high-variance investments, and doubly so in the case of the Vikings.

Apparently the sharps have already had enough of Minnesota. These two teams will meet Sunday night (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) in Minneapolis, and while our expanded consensus reports at press time show 58 percent of bettors preferring the home favorites at –7, over 93 percent of the action is on the G-Men. Great googly-moogly. The average bet on New York is $919, while the Vikes are drawing just $50 a pop.


Not Featuring ODB
It's certainly possible that some of this New York money is coming from the square end of the high-roller community. But the Giants are 7-point road dogs (at -130 juice, granted), and they're fighting for their playoff lives. It's like they're wearing signs around their necks saying “Pick Me, Steve.”

What's that? You're worried about WR Odell Beckham Jr. missing this game for the Giants? Fair enough. Beckham (91 catches, 13 TDs) is one of the very best wideouts in the league. But he's still a wideout. There are other capable targets for QB Eli Manning to throw at, like WR Rueben Randle (51 catches, six TDs) and a host of running backs with soft hands. This is a good opportunity to exploit a star-obsessed marketplace that's overreacting to Beckham's one-game suspension.


Gimme Shelter
Some sharp bettors focus exclusively on underdogs, but aside from the Giants, chalk seems to be the preferred dish on our Week 16 NFL odds board. The Seattle Seahawks (–13.5 at home), Detroit Lions (–11 at home), Kansas City Chiefs (–11 at home) and Pittsburgh Steelers (–11 away) are all pulling in a higher percentage of Amount Wagered than Wagers Placed. So are the undefeated Carolina Panthers (–7 at home).

That support pales in comparison, though, to what we're seeing for the Giants this week. Minnesota hasn't quite clinched a playoff spot yet, and this is the last home game of the regular season. However, the finale is at Lambeau Field against the NFC North-leading Green Bay Packers, and the Vikes are in danger of looking ahead to Week 17. Plus, RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday before getting in some reps on Friday. How will AP perform with temperatures dipping to 20 degrees at kick-off under clear skies? Better hurry up with that new stadium.

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