NFL Picks: Sharps Glad to Fade Patriots When Betting on Week 11

Jason Lake

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 6:09 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 17, 2015 6:09 PM UTC

After failing to beat the football odds in Week 10, the New England Patriots are vulnerable heading into their Monday Night Football matchup with the Buffalo Bills, and sharp NFL picks agree.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 15: 38-34-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 22-28 Total

Who says the NFL is unpredictable? We went 8-4 ATS on our Week 10 NFL picks here at the home office, heading into the Texans-Bengals Monday nighter. It was another outstanding week for the sportsbooks, too, as underdogs went 11-2 ATS. Just like they taught me in Handicapping 101: Dogs rule.

Even the New England Patriots (–7 away) couldn't overcome all that chalk. They did engineer a 27-26 win over the New York Giants, who yet again completely mismanaged the clock late in the fourth quarter. But the Pats didn't cover, and they lost yet another key offensive player when WR Julian Edelman suffered a Jones fracture. Now the sharps are fading New England for this week's very special episode of Monday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Our very early reports show 100 percent consensus for the Buffalo Bills as 9-point road dogs (–130). Most books have the Bills at –7 with the standard –110 juice.

Patricide Is Painless
We'll be looking at this contest again later this week, but there might not be any need to rush if you're thinking about joining the fade parade. Looking at our archived consensus reports for Week 10, the betting public came out and threw big dollars at most of the big favorites – including the Patriots, who ended up with nearly two-thirds of the action versus the Giants. Winning straight-up should ensure the Pats (9-0 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) continue to pile up the chalk.

There's one other big road dog that's getting considerable sharp support right out of the gate. In a stunning reversal of fortune, the Indianapolis Colts (4-5 SU and ATS) opened as 6-point road dogs on the NFL odds board for their Sunday matinee (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) with the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have been a very popular pick since starting the season 4-0 SU and ATS, but they haven't beaten the spread since. Meanwhile, the Colts will be starting Matt Hasselbeck after Andrew Luck was diagnosed with a lacerated kidney.

Things to Do With Denver While They're Dead
Thanks to a spate of other injuries across the league, there are a number of Week 11 games that don't have lines yet – or at least, they only have lines available at one or two books across the pond. But odds have been published for Sunday's contest (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) between the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears, and despite Peyton Manning's latest misadventures, the Broncos (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) are getting 58-percent support as 1-point road faves.

Interesting. Manning had one of the worst games of his life in Denver's 29-13 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5 away), and reports suggest he's been playing through a case of plantar fasciitis. Have we reached the point where Brock Osweiler is a more compelling option at quarterback? Either the sharps think so, or they're buying low on Manning – or maybe a little of both.

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