NFL Picks: Sharps Early Shine to Cowboys & Dolphins in Week 10

Jason Lake

Monday, November 9, 2015 8:30 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 9, 2015 8:30 PM GMT

They couldn't quite manage to beat the NFL odds in Week 9, but Dallas Cowboys (and maybe the Miami Dolphins) are getting tons of early betting support for Week 10.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 8: 29-30-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 20-27 Total

 

Well, that was bound to happen sometime. Our Week 9 NFL picks have been bent, folded, spindled and mutilated to the tune of 3-9 ATS going into Monday night's game. But hey, we went 2-0 on totals~! Looking back on this week's picks, we did take the “square” side a bit more often than usual in spots where it seemed justified. One bad week shouldn't change our strategy; however, we're motivated to pay even closer attention to the betting patterns going into Week 10.

Does that mean we're actually going to bet on the Dallas Cowboys this week? At press time, Dallas (2-6 SU and ATS) is pulling in 92-percent support for Sunday's early matinee against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS), who are laying 1.5 points at home on our NFL odds board. The Cowboys have lost six straight games at 1-5 ATS since Tony Romo was injured. What gives?

 

Fumblerama
Well, Dallas did come close to getting the job done in Week 9. They fought the Philadelphia Eagles (–3 away) tooth and nail, extending them to overtime before losing 33-27. That's the second overtime loss for the Cowboys during this slump; on top of that, they also lost by one point to the Seattle Seahawks (–4.5 away) in Week 8. That's the way the prolate spheroid bounces.

As for the Buccaneers, they had their 3-0 ATS winning streak snapped in a 32-18 loss to the New York Giants (–1.5 away). Phooey. Jameis Winston did a pretty good job Sunday, but Tampa Bay fumbled the ball four times, and New York recovered three of those fumbles. Just one of those days, really. We might end up “fading” the sharps again when the Bucs host Dallas (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX) in Week 10.

 

Tape Job
It's also a bit curious to see the Miami Dolphins (3-5 SU and ATS) grabbing 98 percent of early bettors as 7-point road dogs for Sunday's matchup with the Eagles (4-4 SU and ATS). The Dolphins came out blazing under new interim head coach Dan Campbell, but now they've been thumped in back-to-back games after falling 33-17 to the Buffalo Bills (–4 at home) in Week 9. Looks like Rex Ryan and Sammy Watkins may have pulled a fast one on us.

Maybe the Fins aren't really the sharp pick this time. Our first expanded consensus numbers are out, and while Dallas is drawing 79 percent of the action for its game against the Buccaneers, Miami is getting only 56 percent of the monies wagered for Sunday afternoon (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) in Philly. The average bet size on the Eagles is $54, compared to Miami's $32. Onions have layers, consensus reports have layers.

 

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