NFL Picks: Sharp Sunday Betting in NFL Week 4

Nila Amerova

Sunday, September 29, 2013 12:24 PM GMT

Sunday, Sep. 29, 2013 12:24 PM GMT

NFL betting for Week 4 is now firmly underway. Join us as we deliberate over Sunday’s Football card and deliver some choice NFL picks others may have missed.

Check out our NFL Picks: Week 4 Betting Odds Report for up-to-date info on line movements.

The San Francisco 49ers kicked off Week 4 with a consuming victory over the St. Louis Rams

Baltimore Ravens (-3.0) @ Buffalo Bills (+3.5)

Analysis: The Ravens (2-1, 0-1) are coming off a convincing 30-9 win over the Texans but don’t be fooled by the score and assume it was an offensive steamroll. On the contrary, defense and special teams did the job for the Ravens on a night when Joe Flacco was average, going 16-24 for 171 yards and no touchdowns.

Weirdly though, after tipping the Ravens at the disadvantage at home to the Texans, NFL betting odds makers are sending them on the road as the solid favourites – yet we all know that Flacco is better at home than he is on the road (although last week wasn’t proof positive of that). Still the Bills (1-2, 1-1) lost to the Jets last week 27-20 (shocking), giving up a staggering 513 yards to boot!!

Of course, the Bills will be raring to bounce back from that debacle but beating the Ravens is another matter entirely. This doesn’t mean the Ravens are that great but they aren’t that bad either. Well, their defense is frighteningly good, namely Ravens' D. LB Daryl Smith. If he has the kind of day he had against the Texans, the Bills stand no chance. Going into Week 4 Ravens are 2-1-0 and Bills are 2-1-0 ATS.

[gameodds]16/226917/?r3=43-349-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

NFL Pick: Pass on the Spread; the Ravens straight up.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Cleveland Browns (+3.5)

Analysis: This game could go either way but one has to give the edge to the Cincinnati Bengals who are after a big win over the Green Bay Packers and descend on the Browns as the 3.5 favourites on the road at Bet365. Granted Cleveland Browns finally got a win on the season with 31-27 win over Minnesota Vikings but the victory was rather laborious to say the least. The jury is still out on them, the decision whether they are really bad or just struggling still pending deliberation. But based on what we’ve seen so far, it’s hard to see them extend their form to two wins in a row over a side that is simply brimming with confidence from last week’s big statement-making win over the Packers. Going into Week 4 Bengals are 2-0-1 ATS while the Browns 1-2-0 ATS.

[gameodds]16/226923/?r3=43-349-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

NFL Pick: Bengals to win straight up and cover

Indianapolis Colts (-8.0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.0)

Analysis: The Indianapolis Colts (2-1, 1-0), are after a stunning victory over the San Francisco 49ers at the weekend, disembowelling Kaepernick and Co. 27-7 to the utter shock of home fans and Jim Harbaugh, who for the first time was handed a two-game losing streak in his tenure at San Francisco. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3, 0-1) meanwhile are after a woeful start to the season with three straight defeats, their most recent a 45-17 routing by the Seahawks that marks their biggest defeat yet.

When the Jaguars narrowest defeat was a 19-9 defeat to Oakland Raiders to start the season and their biggest was by 28-points to the Seahawks, it’s hardly surprising to see sportsbooks roll out a large spread of 8-points for this game. Yet, somehow, it doesn’t feel large enough. Three games into the season and HUGE spreads seem to be a must for the Jaguars to make them a worthwhile football pick to cover.

Then again, the Colts are going to be without RB Bradshaw, who joins a growing list of injured Colts on the sidelines. Which means the primary role falls to Trent Richardson, who only joined the team barely a week ago and who although played rather well against the 49ers (13 carries for 35 yards and a TD) is still learning the playbook. It remains to be seen how well he’ll do in a leading role on a new team. What’s more, much is being made of Andrew Luck’s upside and his solid performance against the 49ers. Arguably though it was the poor play of Kaepernick and his departure from his strengths as a QB that made Luck look as good as he did. As well, the poor play of the entire 49ers from top to bottom that made the Colts look as good as they did.

So strictly speaking while taking the Colts as your pick to win this one straight up is a sound move, don’t expect Luck to have another big performance. Curiously, NFL odds makers are overrating the Colts here with an 8-point spread that we feel might be just big enough for the Jaguars to sneak in a cover. Going into Week 4 Colts are 1-2-0 while Jaguars are 0-3-0 ATS.

[gameodds]16/226921/?r3=43-349-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

NFL Pick: Take the Colts to win, Jaguars to cover

Seattle Seahawks (- 1.5) @ Houston Texans (+1.5)

Analysis: It’s hard to find anybody that isn’t impressed by the Seattle Seahawks so far. With three straight wins on the season including a gauntlet throwing win over divisional rivals 49ers they are slowly emerging as one of the teams to spot come playoffs time. Not for nothing are they being called the best team in the NFL right now. Yet they arrive in Houston as just the 1.5 sports betting favourites on the road. For a so-called great team that quote seems too good to be true. So is this a trap pick?

Sure the Texans were routed by the Ravens last week but it was just a one of those days, a bad day in the office so to speak for Matt Schaub and the offense. Expect Schaub to deliver a better performance this time around and the Texans’ star-powered defense to rise to the occasion against Russell Wilson and Company. Keep in mind that Seattle struggled on the road last year. Sure those problems are a thing of the past are you? Going into Week 4 Seahawks are 3-0-0 while the Texans are 0-3-0 ATS.

[gameodds]16/226922/?r3=43-349-192-19-999997-118-238-227/dec&r-1=43-349-192-19/us[/gameodds]

NFL Picks: Pass on the spread; Texans to win straight up

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