NFL Picks: Sharp Bettors Falling In Love With Broncos Money Line

Jason Lake

Friday, January 29, 2016 7:21 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 29, 2016 7:21 PM GMT

The NFL odds have the Carolina Panthers laying up to six points at Super Bowl 50. Our consensus reports show how the betting public has taken things a bit too far.

Hundreds Of Proposition Wagers Available At SBR's Super Bowl 50 Betting Guide
Don't Miss Our Cam Newton's Prop Picks

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NFL Pick: Denver +210
Best Line Offered: at WagerWeb

 

All right, let's talk turkey. Obviously the Denver Broncos are going into our Super Bowl  picks for Super Bowl 50; we've already recommended them at +6 on the point spread, and now we're recommending them at +210 on the moneyline. Betting the underdog at the Big Game is pretty much automatic by now. Pretty much – we still have to follow due process and make sure the situation is right.

So let's dip back into our consensus reports for a moment. At press time, the Panthers are pulling in 63 percent of bettors with 83 percent of the action. That is a whole lot of action. On Thursday, ESPN quoted an email from Nick Bogdanovich at William Hill, who said he couldn't remember a more one-sided Super Bowl. The Panthers opened as 3.5-point favorites on our NFL odds, and aside from the occasional burst of Broncos action, this line just keeps getting chalkier. Excellent.

 

Gimme Steam
Not that moving from 3.5 to six points is that big of a deal. According to Wizard of Odds, that move is worth about 25 cents of vigorish, just a few cents more than moving a half-point off the magic number three. But it's still enough of a shift to make Denver a bargain at these prices, at least from a market perspective.

We've got the stats to back it up. The projections from our favored leatherheads at Football Outsiders, Pro-Football-Reference, and FiveThirtyEight all have Carolina winning the Super Bowl about 60 percent of the time. That works out to a “fair” point spread of around, surprise surprise, Carolina –3.5. So what's driving all this action on the Panthers? Is there something we haven't been told about? Was Peyton Manning spotted at a late-night Denny's muttering to himself about the Illuminati?

 

2011: The Year We Lose Contact
Or maybe it's just square action. I'm not sure if you've noticed, but the Super Bowl has turned into one gigantic dumpster fire over the last, oh, 15 years or so. Over half the people tuning in won't even be there to watch the game – they want to see the ads and the halftime show. Speaking of which, here's a list of the halftime entertainers since the show became concentrated around one act. See if you can spot the tipping point:

2005: Paul McCartney
2006: The Rolling Stones
2007: Prince
2008: Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers
2009: Bruce Springsteen
2010: The Who
2011: The Black Eyed Peas
2012: Madonna
2013: Beyoncé
2014: Bruno Mars
2015: Katy Perry
2016: Coldplay (and Beyoncé and Bruno Mars)

Hoo boy. So we went from “My Generation” to “My Humps” in 2011, and it's only gotten worse – don't get me started on Coldplay. Folks, there's your Super Bowl betting public right there. Place your bets accordingly.

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