NFL Picks: Sharp Betting in NFL Week 9

Nila Amerova

Friday, November 1, 2013 5:49 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 1, 2013 5:49 PM UTC

Week 9 in NFL betting rolls in with a whole slew of matchups to spot. And we are on a mission to find the best winning bets of the lot. Check out what we have come up with and where the value is to be had.

Week 8 was a great week for our sharp bets as we got all our choice NFL picks right on the money. So...pat, pat, pat on the back out of the way...let’s get started on week 9 and hope we are just as good this time at spotting the value NFL picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -4.0 vs. Buffalo Bills +4.0

Analyisis: Just the other day the NFL spread on this matchup was tipped at 3.5, which arguably many held to be too low. Now it’s up by another half-point, up to the great height of 4. Is this the ceiling for the spread? Just two sleeps to Sunday, so we shall see what sportsbooks have in store for this game and how much, if at all, these betting lines will move.

In any event, for undefeated Kansas to be just 3.5 or 4-points better than the Buffalo Bills, who have recorded only three wins on the season and lost three of their last four, just seems laughable – To understand how laughable one need only look at some of the teams they lost to –  struggling Jets and Browns and middleweights Bengals, who just lost to the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. This is one of those too good to be true sports betting scenarios.

Granted, Chiefs (8-0, 3-0 away) were played close by Houston two weeks ago and only just won 17-16. Last week, they settled on a laborious 23-17 victory against the Browns, a side many had expected them to steamroll. Still, what matters the most is the fact that they have made winning into a habit, winning three straight home games to extend their record to a perfect 8-0 before starting a two-game road stretch at Buffalo and ending in Denver, with a bye week sandwiched in between.

By contrast, the Bills (3-5, 2-2 home) are returning from a two-game road stretch having beaten Miami before succumbing to the Saints 35-17 in New Orleans. Their last home game saw them beat by the Bengals 27-24 in overtime while their last home win was over a month ago, a 23-20 win over the Ravens on September 29.

NFL Betting Verdict

At 3.5 the spread was really low on this game and so if you got in on Chiefs to cover then, bravo! It’s still good at 4.0 because we don’t think it’s warranted that sportsbooks underrate the Chiefs at the expense of the Bills so much. So get in while you still can.

Bonus Tip: While you are at it, if you are inclined towards the Chiefs here, take them to win straight up as well at -185 NFL odds at Bet365 and take the Over 40 at -110.

NFL Free Picks: Chiefs to cover

Bonus NFL Free Picks: Chiefs to win straight up at -185 and Over 40 -110

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Atlanta Falcons +7.5 vs. Carolina Panthers -7.5

How quickly things change from season to season. Last year, Falcons soared through the season to finish with a 13-3-0 record and clinch the NFC South. In the space of a season however they’ve crashed down with such decisive a thud, few would have expected it really.

Going into week 9 of NFL betting, they boast a 2-5, 0-3 record overall –  they have more losses already than in the entire of last year’s season. Currently, they are on a three-game slide and in danger – if the NFL odds were any indication, tipped at +270 to win outright at Bet365 – of losing a fourth in a row.

Few would have expected at the start of the season this matchup to be priced this way, with the Panthers on the favourite side of the equation – listed at a whopping -340 to win outright at Bet365 and as the 7.5-point faves to boot. Most likely, given last season, many would have thought it would be the other way.

Put another way, aren’t bookies overrating Cam Newton and the Panthers a bit here? Sure, Panthers (4-3, 2-1 home) are above .500 right now but let’s not forget that they are so for the first time since 2008, and, more importantly, that they’ve built this positive record on some sketchy opposition – Minnesota, St. Louis and Tampa Bay. A run of form that is largely down to a nice pocket in the schedule and that can’t give us a real sense of Carolina’s worth. Not until they come up against the San Francisco 49ers and New England Patriots will we be really able to tell whether they are the real deal. As such, this seems to be a rather overrated market on the Panthers.

NFL Betting Verdict

Falcons are steeped in misery right, far off their 8-0 form to start last season. But this is a divisional rivalry that they’ve come away from victorious more often than not in recent years and that should give them motivation. Perhaps it’s exactly what they need to turn things around and get back on track. In any event, in terms of betting, odds on the Falcons do offer better value and that’s why they are our value pick to win outright.

NFL Picks: Atlanta Falcons to win outright at +270 at Bet365

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