NFL Picks: Sharp Betting in NFL Week 12

Nila Amerova

Friday, November 22, 2013 1:54 PM GMT

Another week of football betting. Another installment of Sharp NFL Picks for your consideration. So join us as we deliver our choice selections for the best NFL bets in week 12.  

San Diego Chargers +180 (+4.5 -110) @ Kansas City Chiefs -220 (-4.5 -110)

Analysis: These are heady times in Kansas with the Chiefs a perfect 5-0 at home, looking to extend that solid run to six at the expense of San Diego Chargers. Sportsbooks install the Chiefs as the hot -220 favorites to win outright and the 4.5-point favorites on the spread. Of these two NFL markets, the straight up odds make sense given their winning home form and overall record on the season that stands at 9-1. Simply put, their form is great and they should be confident of the win. And so should you if you are looking to back them on your weekend NFL picks.

The latter NFL odds however are a bit perplexing. Are bookies suggesting the Chiefs are just 4.5 points better than Chargers?

Not everybody is jumping on the Chiefs’ bandwagon; suggestions that they’re overrated have been floated about for some time now. But that they should be underrated so smacks of disingenuous, especially when the Chargers have lost the plot since a 4-3 start on the season and lost three in a row. They were tough defeats admittedly, two of which were decided by just four points but both were against Miami and Washington, two sides that are .500 and .300 respectively. Only Denver managed to beat them by eight points and surely that is the more representative result. Chiefs offense is no Peyton-Manning offense but their rush offense is good while the Chargers rush defense is abysmal. They do say when it looks too good to be true it probably is. But a 4.5-point spread for the Chiefs?  You have to pile on to it. Just have to.

NFL Free Picks: Chiefs to win straight up and cover

NFL Picks: Chargers vs. Chiefs Week 12

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Denver Broncos -130 (-2.5 -110) @ New England Patriots +110 (+2.5 -110)

Analysis: The Denver Broncos (9-1, 3-1) are soaring high after handing the Kansas City Chiefs their first defeat on the season. It’s almost fitting that the prolific Peyton Manning and his Broncos would do what no other team has managed to do this season: that is stopping the Chiefs’ juggernaut. Now with that notch on his belt, Peyton Manning can look ahead to a much-hyped clash with New England Patriots (7-3, 5-0) – clearly, a big billing bookies want to be a close, competitive one with a 2.5-point spread on offer.

The Patriots are undefeated at home and Tom Brady isn’t too shabby a quarterback so NFL bettors have to pause for thought here before piling onto any of the tight NFL betting markets on this clash. Patriots at +110 to win straight up are tempting given the stakes are high, not least the media attention surrounding this game and the bragging rights on the table.

Perhaps that big win over the Chiefs could be an explanation as to why the Broncos are favored at -130 to win straight up at Bet365 over the Patriots, despite the hosts boasting a perfect 5-0 record. If there were a team to put a blot on it, Broncos is that team surely. That and their playoffs clash last season also went the way of the Broncos quite significantly. By ten points to be exact, which makes the 2.5-point spread rather interesting.

NFL Betting: Broncos vs. Patriots Betting the Spread

You can bet both QB’s will be ready to showcase their wares on the field and try to outdo one another. Brady especially who will be eager to bounce back after his side’s defeat to the Panthers last week. But when it comes to QBs this season Peyton makes better reading than Brady does, simple as that. We know to expect nothing but the best from Peyton – hasn’t he proved it all season long? Brady on the other hand has been a bit MEH! No question he’s a future hall of famer and should never be underestimated when time and again he’s shown he can rise to the occasion.  On the merit of this season – defeats to Jets, Bengals and Panthers – and recent form ahead of this clash, how confident are you that he’ll get the desired result at the expense of the Broncos? If you are, go ahead and add the Patriots to your NFL picks. For our money, we’re pounding the Broncos.  

NFL Picks: Broncos to win straight up and cover

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