NFL Picks: Shade Packers In Wild Card Game vs. Redskins

Nikki Adams

Friday, January 8, 2016 12:03 AM GMT

Friday, Jan. 8, 2016 12:03 AM GMT

An NFC North tilt features in the wild-card round when the Green Bay Packers descend on the Washington Redskins. Find out what NFL odds are trading and where our value NFL picks are to be had.

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NFL Pick: Packers -1 

Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Green Bay Packers Move From Underdog to Fave?
The Green Bay Packers failed to come through as preseason favorites to win the NFC North title when they succumbed to a defeat to the Minnesota Vikings in week 17 NFL betting with the title on the line. As a consequence, the Packers slipped to fifth seed in the NFC Conference.

On one hand, the Packers were losers in the last week of the regular season in both game and broad spectrum of the division. Whether they were losers in the postseason though is up in the air, having gained a rather favorable matchup against the unproven Washington Redskins that haven’t won a postseason game in over a decade there’s an argument to be had that they might, in fact, be winners after all having avoided the dreaded matchup with the Seattle Seahawks. That’s the pleasure awaiting the Minnesota Vikings now.

It wasn’t obvious immediately to NFL bettors that the Packers were in some measure so-called winners as they emerged as the road underdogs to the Washington Redskins. It’s worth noting of the entire wild-card slate, where all road teams opened as the chalk, the Packers were the only side to be dubbed as the underdogs, albeit nominally so with NFL lines opening anywhere from 2-points or less.

Since early doors, there has been a lot of intriguing movement recorded across the board, mainly the Packers have moved by a maximum of 3-points which takes them into favorable territory – coming down from a high of +2 to -1. A few sports betting outlets have this game on a PK line at the moment such as BetOnline.

This movement is made all the more interesting because of the contrasting NFL betting trends revealed by Consensus betting polls. Washington Redskins edge the Green Bay Packers with 50.53% of the spread tickets, which is a nominal edge at best. It’s more of an indication of even public betting with squares divided on the Packers and Redskins in principle.

However, the Redskins have garnered a whopping 87.22% of the money risked on this game to the tune of $1,052,982 (with the largest wagers staked creeping up to an average of almost $1000) according to SBR Consensus reports received from contributing sportsbooks.  That hefty dollar amount staked on the Redskins is an excellent indicator that sharp money is probably on the Redskins, coming down on their NFL odds at one point or other during open trading.

 

Do the Sharps Have it Right?
The Packers and Aaron Rodgers, the reigning MVP, mind, are barely getting any real love at the NFL betting exchange, with both public and sharp bettors seemingly leaning towards the untried and unproven Kirk Cousins and the Redskins. It actually beggars belief.

Granted Kirk Cousins has been on fire late and he’s been largely responsible for lifting the Redskins into the postseason for the first time since their last foray in 2012. He’s also played superbly down the stretch, emerging as a touchdown machine in a four-game winning streak to close the season with 9-7 SU record and the NFC East title in the bag.

However, those wins came at the expense of the Bears, Bills, Eagles and Cowboys – none of which had a reasonable shot at the playoffs at the time or were already eliminated. Surely the Packers present a whole different test for the Redskins.

Some of the apathy towards the Packers has a lot to do with their rather disappointing finish to the season, winning just four of their last ten games. That can’t be overlooked, obviously, and it raises some valid questions. But as the saying goes, it’s not how you finish the regular season but how you perform in the playoffs that counts. There have been instances were a team wobbled in the regular season, only to emerge champions when all was said and done – the NY Giants spring to mind with their win in 2011-2012.

Last season, the Packers were mere minutes away from winning the NFC Championship over the Seahawks and going into Super Bowl 49, only for a last gasp effort by Seattle to snatch the coveted chance out of their hands. What made their run all the more impressive was Aaron Rodgers, who was hobbled with a bum leg at the time, yet he still orchestrated a run into the penultimate round of the playoffs.

In short, the Packers have left much to be desired in the way they finished the regular season. But do you really want to bet against them in the postseason against a Washington Redskins that only five minutes ago were a laughing stock in the league? It’s debatable as well whether the Redskins are legitimate playoff contenders seeing how awful the NFC East as a whole was too. We’re fading the public and the sharps that are on the Redskins and taking the Packers as the now -1-point road faves to win and cover with our NFL picks. Luck to us!

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