Seattle Seahawks divisional future odds update
However, even though they are one of the biggest favorites in both the NFC and the Super Bowl odds this offseason, they are underdogs in their divisional odds. LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the Seahawks at +120 to win the NFC West this season, behind their rivals, the 49ers at -125.
Seattle put the icing on the cake this off-season when they traded for Percy Harvin and signed Cliff Avril, and even though they didn't make many other moves other than those two, they absolutely did not have to. They got a lot better from just those two moves. Although I think Seattle's likelihood of winning a Super Bowl in the next three or four years is extremely high, (mostly because of how little they have to pay their very good and very young quarterback) I do not think it is going to be in the 2013 season. That being said, I think their odds to win the division here are quite enticing, and I think they are one of the best bets in the future odds this offseason.
The NFC West is very interesting this season, but with the exception of a bunch of devastating injuries, I think is it almost a certainty that either the Seahawks or 49ers win the division. The 49ers are displaying only a little bit of chalk, while the Seahawks seem pretty adequately priced at +120 in the NFL Odds. A 4-unit/2.5-unit bet on both teams would still yield a small profit as long as one of them won the division.
With that being said, if you read my article about the Seahawks previous to this, you'll know that I think they are extremely overvalued in their Super Bowl and conference odds. They have been deflated some, but I think they need one more season to put things together, in order to be a Super Bowl contender in the near future.
In the NFL Odds this season, I also think we are going to see a sharp decrease in ATS production for the Seahawks. Seattle was one of the best teams against the spread last year during the regular season, and if you combine their postseason wins against the spread, they were the most profitable team in the NFL in 2012.
That was likely because of the fact that they came completely out of left field. This year everyone sees how good the Seahawks were, and how good they're going to be this season. That likely is going to mean that any sort of undervaluing they experienced last season is long gone.
For instance, Seattle was 7-1 ATS at home and 3-0 as home underdogs in 2012. There is absolutely no way Seattle is that undervalued this season at home. I see their lines being inflated, and I also see value coming from the other side. Against bad teams that are visiting Seattle, the Hawks are likely going to be double-digit favorites at home, and after looking at their schedule, the only time they could possibly be underdogs at home this year will be against San Francisco in Week 2.