Despite the fact that the NFL season ended just three weeks ago, CG Technology has already released its 2015 NFL Team Win Totals, so let’s apply what we’ve learned from our AFC and NFC Schedule Analysis and plug in some picks.
Not to be beaten by anyone to the punch, CG Technology in Las Vegas earlier this week released it’s 2015 NFL Season Team Win Totals, and fresh off the end of the 2014 season just three weeks ago, and with our Sportsbook Review AFC and NFC Strength of Schedule previews published here last week fresh in our minds, let’s analyze the real numbers released and plug in some picks if they make sense with the perceived schedule breakdowns. Of course, much will be happening between now and NFL Kickoff 2015 Weekend—when the Super Bowl XLIX champion New England Patriots and Tom Brady play host in the season opener against a yet to be named opponent (Thursday, Sept. 10)—including the NFL Combines, which have already gotten underway, and which we will talk about our next story here. So, making any bets this early—in the Winter!—will be exposed to all sorts of potential Change, but still, this seems like the ideal point in Time in which to make Season Team Win Total wagers as, in the end, things really don’t end up changing that much for most teams despite the NFL Draft (April 30-May 2), Free Agency and various other Offseason happenings.
In short, the Redskins are still going to be the Redskins and the Packers are still going to be the Packers. And NFL Divisional Winners ended up going Over in 7 of the NFL’s 8 divisions in 2014 (using Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook numbers), making handicapping this marketplace last year almost like Shooting Fish in a Barrel—for whomever has done that funky thing that nobody has ever done. It seems the first shot at any said Fish in said Barrel would result in a Hole in said Barrel and then probably a leak, making the whole Shooting Fish In A Barrel thing more like a way to end up with a bunch of water on your floor. And ain’t nobody got Time for that these days. No way, no how. And who has barrels anymore anyway?
Opening CG Technology Odds—AFC
Baltimore Ravens 9 (Over -120, Under -110)
Buffalo Bills 8½ (Over -110, Under -120)
Cincinnati Bengals 8½ (Over -105, Under -125)
Cleveland Browns 6 (Over -125, Under -105)
Denver Broncos 10 (Over -130, Under +100)
Houston Texans 8½ (Over +100, Under -130)
Kansas City Chiefs 8½ (Over -105, Under -125)
Indianapolis Colts 9½ (Over -110, Under -120)
Jacksonville Jaguars 5½ (Over -110, Under -120)
Miami Dolphins 8 (Over +100, Under -130)
New England Patriots 10½ (Over -135, Under +105)
New York Jets 6½ (Over -110, Under -120)
Oakland Raiders 4½ (Over -140, Under +110)
Pittsburgh Steelers 8½ (Over -115, Under -115)
San Diego Chargers 8½ (Over -115, Under -120)
Tennessee Titans 5 (Over -130, Under +100)
Opening CG Technology Odds—NFC
Atlanta Falcons 8 (Over -120, Under -110)
Arizona Cardinals 8 (Over -110, Under -120)
Carolina Panthers 8½ (Over -110, Under -120)
Chicago Bears 7 (Over -115, Under -115)
Dallas Cowboys 9½ (Over -115, Under -115)
Detroit Lions 8½ (Over -110, Under -120)
Green Bay Packers 10 (Over -145, Under +115)
Minnesota Vikings 6½ (Over -120, Under -110)
New Orleans Saints 9 (Over -110, Under -120)
New York Giants 8 (Over +100, Under -130)
Philadelphia Eagles 9 (Over -110, Under -120)
San Francisco 49ers 8½ (Over -120, Under -110)
Seattle Seahawks 11 (Over +100, Under -130)
St. Louis Rams 7½ (Over -110, Under -120)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5½ (Over -130, Under +100)
Washington Redskins 6 (Over -115, Under -115)
All three of the NFL teams we projected to go Over their 2015 NFL Season Win Totals—the Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles—all have projected Season Win Totals a little bit higher than the opening numbers released by CG Technology on Monday. Looking at the schedule, the Ravens looked like a projected 12-4 team, therefore the 9 wins posted by CGT is a full 3 games under what was thought they can achieve, so this one quite obviously is one of the bets which sticks out the most. Last season, Baltimore had 10 wins with the eventual Super Bowl champion Patriots ending its postseason. The Eagles were a projected 10-6 team here—the same number of wins the team had last season—so at 9, the Over may get there slightly, but much depends on what this organization decides to do at QB. It may be too close to offer up, but still seems wise from this distance. And, the Panthers were pegged to be 9-7 this coming season, so with a posted Total of 8½ wins, that theoretical half-game margin is just probably too slim to offer up an Over bet on Carolina and Cam Newton. So it’s them birds—the Ravens in the AFC and the Eagles in the NFC would be the only two teams worth getting in on the Over this early on, with The Tackling Edgar Allan Poes of Baltimore really sticking out. The AFC North is tough, but the Ohioans are suspect.
A healthy majority of NFL 2014 Season Team Win Totals went Over, but this season will be different in my mind with a little more than half falling Under. One team deemed an Under play here was the Buffalo Bills, (Projected 6-10), and with NFL odds posting the number at 8, a 1½-game mental cushion makes it a go. This team will either evolve some more, or go a little more back to being the Bills and I’m going with the latter. The Cleveland Browns (Projected 3-13) Season Team Win Total at CG Technology opened up at 6 and that’s good for Under business when a brother thinks they’ll only scrape out 3 wins. Like the Ravens and their Over, that perceived 3-game difference could be huge in the gambler’s mind. For me, 2014 was a fluke for the Browns and although they have improved, will suffer from having to play the other 3 teams in the AFC North twice each and will likely play more like they did at the end of last season and not the beginning. The Indianapolis Colts enjoy feasting on its AFC South counterparts (6-0 SU in 2014), and, at a projected 9-7, it’s just too close to the 9½ at CGT, so, it’s a pass on Indianapolis.
The Denver Broncos (Projected 10-6) will more than likely get QB Peyton Manning to return to the fold in the Mile High City, but with that posted 10 the same as our projected 10, next please. No sense wasting Time. The Washington Redskins (Projected 4-12) always seem to be on the verge of improving, but never seem to do so. And with CGT pegging them for 6 wins—2 higher than the forecast—betting this team Under that Total is recommended. The Atlanta Falcons could also be labeled as a team which never gets that much better despite expectations, and the projected 7-9 record may be a little too close to the 8 wins the oddsmakers here have posted. Still, the Under for Atlanta should be mulled be the serious punter. And, the Arizona Cardinals (Projected 8-8) have a posted Total of 8, so again, the oddsmakers are ahead of the curve with Arizona’s potential decline win-wise this coming NFL season.
This was just a look at the team’s discussed in the 2015 NFL Strength of Schedule previews which may possible be good Over or Under teams in the Season Team Win Total marketplace based on the scheduled opponents as the order of and specific dates for each opponents has yet to be unveiled. So, just those teams pegged to go Over or Under are included as picks below after comparing the projected win totals to the numbers released by CG Technology. A look at some other teams not written about in those AFC and NFC 2015 Strength of Schedule previews may follow here in the future. For now, these four NFL picks below seem to be the Cream of the Crop.
2015 Season Win Team Total Picks: Ravens Over 9 -120, Bills Under 8 -120, Browns Under 6 -105, Redskins Under 6 -115 (CG Technology)