Season win totals are a great way for sports gamblers to profit with NFL picks in preseason. Here is a rundown of all 32 teams, and a quick look at whether they may have value.
Arizona Cardinals (8.5)
The Arizona Cardinals came out of nowhere last season, but injury derailed them in the latter half of the season. This year if they can stay healthy, and their defense can bounce back from losing some key players, this team is an easy play for the over at -125 NFL odds.
Atlanta Falcons (8.5)
The Falcons could be one of the more interesting season win totals of the 32 teams. At 8.5, and in a division that could be down, they could be a great over bet for your NFL picks, but is their defense improved enough to get above .500 this season? That’s the question.
Baltimore Ravens (9)
Baltimore is just a solid football team. They had a solid draft, a solid free agency, and now they have a season win total of nine. However. The only problem with that is the Baltimore Ravens may play in the toughest division in football, so while nine isn’t out of the question, it’s not something I am actively seeking this season.
Buffalo Bills (8.5)
Speaking of teams that I question whether they can get to nine wins, enter the Bills. Rex Ryan and a solid offseason should improve this team a lot, but the quarterback situation scares me a lot, and at even money on the under, that’s where I would go this season.
Carolina Panthers (8.5)
Cam Newton is the league’s newest $100 million player, and while he is absolutely worth it, it takes a village to get above 8.5 wins, and I don’t know if the Carolina Panthers have that village. There is a ton of juice with the under at -140 though, so laying off may be the best way to go about this line.
Chicago Bears (7)
John Fox should help this team out some as well, and as long as the new coaching staff can figure out Jay Cutler, this could be a great over bet at seven wins. However playing in the NFC North scares me a little for this one, so laying off again might be the safest play.
Cincinnati Bengals (8.5)
The only two things keeping me from betting the over here is the division and the quarterback. While both aren’t enough for me to lay off completely, I think the under may actually be the best play here at -105 at Bovada Sportsbook. However, it should be really close.
Cleveland Browns (6.5)
Maybe one of the better wagers on the Browns this season will be some special Johnny Manziel props once we get those, but for now this team looks like a train wreck on offense, and in the AFC North, there is no way this team gets to seven wins. It’s all about the under here.
Dallas Cowboys (9.5)
I really like the Dallas Cowboys this season, but this number is pretty sharp. However the only problem with it is that the chalk is at -130 for the over, and +100 for the under. It’s conflicting me a little bit, but if they can find a running game, this team is poised for ten wins.
Denver Broncos (10)
We might see a big fall off for the Denver Broncos this season, but if Peyton Manning can come back and show us he still has it after falling off a cliff down the stretch last season, this may be an easy over bet. However, I think the under is likely the better value at +100.
Detroit Lions (8)
I also really like the Lions this season, but once again the division is making me question the over or under here. Eight wins isn’t that many, but if they drop one or two games against lesser opponents, eight wins brings a whole new situation. However with the chalk at -130, I still am leaning over.
Green Bay Packers (11)
When these line first cam out, and the Green Bay Packers were only at 10 wins, I think all of us at Sportsbook Review chuckled a little bit on the way to place a bet on the over. Now that the line is at 11, it doesn’t have the no-brainer value, but it should still be a good over bet for one of the best teams in the NFL.
Houston Texans (8.5)
Hard Knocks is going to give us an up close and personal look at the Texans this offseason, but outside of their quarterback battle, this team looks solid. In a bad division as well, nine wins looks like a steal at -105 for the over.
Indianapolis Colts (11)
The Indianapolis Colts are another team a lot of people are high on this season, and if they can put it all together, 12 wins and a Super Bowl may be in the cards. However the sportsbooks know this, and the over is at -130, which is a lot of risk in the NFL when the total is 11.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5.5)
Another team that has a chance to be much improved this offseason is the Jags. Playing in the AFC South against the Titans twice is going to help things, but the problem with betting the over is they have juice of -150 after a lot of people have bet the over. The risk/reward factor is still big though, because I could see Jacksonville getting to seven wins if everything goes right for them.
Kansas City Chiefs (8.5)
The Kansas City Chiefs are a team I look at this offseason and think, what happened? They are a couple years removed from looking like they were one franchise quarterback and some receivers away from being a Super Bowl contender. Now they look like one of the better under bets of all 32 teams at 8.5 wins. I’m not expecting much more than seven wins from KC.
Miami Dolphins (8.5)
Ryan Tannehill got big money this offseason, and after spending big money in free agency, this is a make or break year for several people in Miami. I think they can do it, but heads will roll if they don’t get to nine wins and a playoff berth. I’m guessing they do it, but -145 for the over here makes me want to lay off entirely on this one.
Minnesota Vikings (7.5)
No one is talking about the Minnesota Vikings this offseason, and that either means they are going to do exactly what everyone thinks they’ll do, or exceed it by several wins. I think it could be the latter. This team is slowly becoming a young threat to the rest of the NFC North, and while eight wins will be tough, it’s not out of the question.
New England Patriots (10.5)
Deflate-gate ad Tom Brady’s suspension has hurt the New England Patriots' NFL Odds a little this offseason, but Jimmy Garoppolo is a solid quarterback, and I think he will do a fair job in filling in for Brady while the suspension runs out. The over still has value here, and the newly opened NFL Odds of -125 for the over look ripe for the picking.
New Orleans Saints (8.5)
The New Orleans Saints are another hotly debated team this offseason, and their floor and ceiling for wins has a pretty wide margin within it. Nine wins would be a stretch for this team after trading Jimmy Graham, but it’s not a bad wager either. I’m probably laying off, but I can fault anyone for wanting to play the over.
New York Giants (8.5)
The Giants are another team that may be overvalued. New York tends to overvalue their teams anyway; so nine wins for this club may be a stretch after not changing much throughout the offseason. At -115, I would play the under with the Giants.
New York Jets (7.5)
However, have no fear New York faithful, because I think the Jets could be a solid bet on the over this season. Their defense should be one of the best in the NFL this season, and the Jets should easily be an eight or nine win football team this season.
Oakland Raiders (5.5)
To give the Raiders some credit, at least they’re trying. They signed a wealth of free agents this season, and if they work out this team could be in line for six or more wins. However, that is a big if with the Raiders, and while I am laying off this wager, I am very intrigued to see what the Raiders put together this season.
Philadelphia Eagles (9.5)
Philadelphia may be the most debated team this offseason and for good reason. Chip Kelly has transformed this team after only a few seasons in Philly, and while some like what he has done, I do not. The under should be the play for the Philadelphia Eagles this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5)
If it wasn’t for some big question marks on the defensive side of the football, I would be all over the over here. However, with some gaps on defense, and with Le’Veon Bell facing at least a two-game suspension (see updated news article here), I am laying off the Pittsburgh Steelers for now.
San Diego Chargers (8)
San Diego was hinting about trading Phillip Rivers, but after the season he put up last season, I have no idea why they would do that. This team is on the rise, and while they did lose some key pieces in free agency, they also added some nice pieces too. I think the over is the play for the Chargers.
San Francisco 49ers (7.5)
The 49ers have been one of the biggest jokes among media types throughout the offseason, and while they could shove it all down our throats with a nine win season, they could also be 6-10. I think they’ll end up the latter in one of the toughest divisions in football.
Seattle Seahawks (11)
I always try to pick Seattle in things and I almost always lose. This should tell me to lay off more, but I cannot this offseason. With an improving division, I could see the Seattle Seahawks only getting to 10 wins this season. While it’s probably not the most popular bet, one of these days they are going to stumble, and it might be this season with a tough schedule and a target firmly on their back.
St. Louis Rams (8)
The Rams are another team that the only thing holding me back from recommending the over is their division. I really like the Rams defense, and I think their offense should be solid under Nick Foles, but I am laying off because of the unknown about their six tough divisional games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6)
It’s all up to Jameis Winston whether or not the Bucs are a solid over bet, or one of the better under plays in all of the NFL. This roster is set up to have success if they have it under center, and while I’m not ready to make any predictions on that, I will be watching the Bucs training camp and preseason closely.
Tennessee Titans (5.5)
Speaking of teams I’ll be watching closely this summer, the Titans may still be a year away from being a surprising team, but 5.5 wins isn’t that much. The problem is if their offense looks like it did a season ago, the under is by far the better play.
Washington Redskins (6.5)
Finally the Redskins, who I think are being slightly undervalued by the sportsbooks at 6.5 wins. While overall their team isn’t going to make any playoff runs, they might make you think they are if Robert Griffin III can get his stuff together. This is a well-coached team with some talent on both sides of the ball, so seven wins is not out of the question.