NFL Picks: Seahawks vs. Rams Betting the Total

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, October 28, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Kellen Clemens of the Rams is making just his second NFL start in five years Monday, and it is vs. the ferocious Seattle defense to boot! Go ‘under’ in St. Louis.

It could be a relatively low-scoring game on Monday Night Football this week when the Seattle Seahawks (6-1, 3-1 away) pay a visit to the St. Louis Rams (3-4, 2-1 home) at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis, MO at 8:40 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 43½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -108.

The Seahawks are understandably double-digit road favorites here after improving to 6-1 with a 34-22 road win over the Arizona Cardinals last week and they have had extra preparation time for this with that game being on a Thursday night.

Still, you will not get rich giving this many points on the road in the NFL, but we do think that the ‘under’ is worth a look because the Seahawks may be the only team doing much scoring! Do not be fooled by that 34-22 final last week either, as much of the scoring was set up by short fields for both teams in a typically sloppy Thursday affair that saw the squads combine to commit four turnovers.

The Rams may not get the usual support from the home crowd tonight with the St. Louis Baseball Cardinals also home for Game 5 of the World Series, but that should be the least of the Rams’ worries. You see, they lost quarterback Sam Bradford for the season to a torn ACL in a 30-15 road loss to the Carolina Panthers last week, meaning that Kellen Clemens will be making his first NFL start since starting one game in 2009.

It cannot boost Clemens’ confidence that St. Louis reportedly reached out to Brett Favre to come out of retirement this past week and that they also signed Brady Quinn, as if his confidence were not already shaken by being forced to make his debut vs. the ferociously physical Seattle defense! The Seahawks boast probably the best secondary in football and they rank third in the NFL in pass defense permitting just 190.6 yards per game through the air.

One way to slow down the Seattle pass rush and loosen up that secondary would be to run the ball effectively, but the Rams are simply not equipped to do that this year after electing to allow Steven Jackson to walk away during the off-season. As a result, St. Louis is ranked 29th in the NFL in rushing at just 70.6 yards per game on a miserable 3.2 yards per carry, so Clemens is seemingly being thrown to the wolves here.

We just do not see how the Rams can generate any offense whatsoever under these circumstances.

Now the Seahawks actually rank sixth in the NFL with their 27.3 points per game, but even that goes back to their great defense, as it has oftentimes set up the offense with great field position. In actuality, Seattle is conservative offensively by nature, and why not when you lead the NFL in rushing offense thanks to boasting one if the premier running backs in football in Marshawn Lynch.

They also have a great game manager at quarterback in Russell Wilson, who does not turn the ball over and is simultaneously completing 61.5 percent of his passes and averaging an excellent 8.0 yards per pass attempt. The caveat there of course is that Seattle simply does not throw the ball as often as other teams, as the Seahawks’ 27.9 pass attempts per game is second fewest in the NFL ahead of only the San Francisco 49ers.

Therefore, while Seattle should score its share of points, it will probably not be enough to prevent an ‘under’ given the expected offensive shortcomings of the Rams on Monday Night Football.

[gameodds]16/226987/?r-1=238-92-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

NFL Pick: Seahawks, Rams ‘under’ 43½ (-108)