The NFL Odds have the Seahawks as -10 ½ favorites on the road in this one, and I think I have found some value on one side of this spread. Follow along as we dissect this matchup and see if we have some value to add to our NFL Picks this week.
Clemens in it
Leave out the halfway stupid subtitle, but Kellen Clemens is set to start this game in primetime against one of the most feared defenses in the entire NFL. ESPN stats reported that Clemens has the worst total QBR since 2006 with a minimum of 500 snaps. Most of his hardships have been with the Jets, however in the last three seasons, he has been in St. Louis and not playing well. In 2011 when Sam Bradford went down for a few games, Clemens was only 48/91 with two touchdowns and one pick.
The Hawks are going to send tons of defenders after Clemens in this one to try and throw the veteran off of his game. He hasn’t seen real game action very much over the last few seasons. He has only four pass attempts this season, and all of last season he got in the game to throw a total of three passes. Pete Carroll and his defensive staff are going to try and take advantage of this and will likely make him prove he can counter the blitz early in the game.
The Sharp Pick
Seattle has gone 7-3 ATS and 8-2 SU in their last ten games overall against the Rams, and even with some of their past road woes, the Hawks have been good in St. Louis. The Seahawks are 6-2 SU in their last eight seasons going into St. Louis, and even though they are only 3-2 ATS in their last five trips there, this will be the first time they are playing them in a while without Sam Bradford under center.
St. Louis is only averaging about 12 points per game against the Hawks in their last ten meetings overall with them, and St. Louis has not reached 20 points against the Hawks since late in the 2010 season.
In their game against the 49ers at home a couple of weeks ago, the Rams only mustered up 11 points on the short week. This week without their starting quarterback, and with the Hawks coming into town, I don’t expect much more than 10-12 points once again from the Rams.
Pop back and check out my Opening Odds Report on this game~
Even with St. Louis’ defense playing better, they likely won’t be playing well if they fall behind early. The Rams have played well with the lead, but with the likely return of Percy Harvin for Seattle, the Hawks are going to want to try and score as much as possible. Even if Harvin only plays 25-30 snaps in this game, they are going to try and get him the ball in space.
I see the bad Rams defense showing up on Monday night, and since the Hawks are likely getting Harvin back, I am laying the points for my sports betting. This game screams Carroll and company blow out even though it is a divisional game.
My Pick: Seahawks -10 ½ at Bet365