NFL Picks: Seahawks vs. Packers Week 3 Preseason

Jordan Sharp

Monday, August 19, 2013 6:18 PM GMT

Monday, Aug. 19, 2013 6:18 PM GMT

With both teams coming off of nice wins, who will keep their momentum going to start the regular season? Let's breakdown the NFL odds on offer for this weeks matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers.

Guide to picking NFL Preseason winners.

Week 2

The Packers turned things around some in Week 2 with a win over the Rams. Even though the Packers were held without a touchdown until the 4th quarter, their defense held the Rams to no touchdowns until the final minute of the game. Aaron Rodgers was surgical, however he did not end any of his drives with pay dirt, going 10/12 with 134 yards passing. The Packers did end their first drive with a field goal however.

The Seahawks turned it up a notch once again in Week 2, destroying the Broncos 40-10. Russell Wilson played the entire first half, and led the Seahawks to over 30 points scored in the first half alone. Wilson was 8/12 with 127 yards and two touchdowns from the air, while adding ten more yards on the ground from one very nice carry.

The Hawks blasted the Chargers in Week 1 of the preseason, and now Pete Carroll has improved his preseason record even more in the NFL at 9-5 SU. Coming into Green Bay as favorites is probably the right line, but I am a bit skeptical. Will Carroll still play his young starting quarterback the entire first half, and furthermore, will they have as much success against the Packers’ defense?

Inflation

Inflation in NFL betting can happen in the NFL Odds from time to time, and I think this games’ total is a perfect example. The Hawks have now scored over 70 points in two games this preseason, which makes the total of this game a bit higher at 42 ½, and even 43 at The Greek. However the Packers scoring has not been very good.

Even though they have had success against the defenses of the Chargers and Broncos, the Packers’ defense should present a bigger challenge. On the other side of things, the Packers have now cashed the ‘Under’ in both of their preseason games, and along with not scoring too many points themselves, they have held their opponents (notably below average offenses) to a combined 24 points in two games this preseason.

I think it’s safe to say the total in this game might be a bit too high. Defense normally comes out to play more in the latter half of the preseason. This is for many reasons, but the main ones are that these teams will actually game plan for one another in this matchup, and starting defenses normally play longer.

[gameodds]16/226863/?r3=43-999997-349/us&r-1=43-999997-349/us[/gameodds]

The Sharp Pick

Even though Mike McCarthy has been a machine in cashing the ‘Over’ in preseasons past, I think the ‘Under’ is the play for this game. Both defenses have allowed very few points this preseason, and even though they both have stellar offenses, I see a lower scoring game in this one. Take the ‘Under’ and add it to your NFL Picks

My Pick: ‘Under’ 43

Sportsbooks with the best prices on 2013-14 NFL Futures

comment here