NFL Picks: Seahawks-Redskins Monday Night Odds Report

Jason Lake

Wednesday, October 1, 2014 1:58 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2014 1:58 PM GMT

Eight points wasn’t enough. Nine was too much. But after some back-and-forth, it looks like early bettors have found their price on the Week 5 NFL odds board for Monday night’s Seattle-Washington matchup.

Jason’s record after Week 4: 12-14 ATS, 5-4-1 Totals

Profit: minus-5.6 units

Believe it or not, we’re already at the quarter pole of the 2014 NFL regular season. What have we learned so far? Well, the Seattle Seahawks (2-1 SU and ATS) look like viable candidates to win back-to-back Super Bowls, something that’s only been done eight times since the first Vince Lombardi Trophy was awarded at the end of the 1966 season. Think about it: Joe Montana, John Elway, Tom Brady – and Russell Wilson. It could happen.

Also, there’s still a team in Washington. Not much of one, though. There were some positive signs early in the season from the D.C. defense, and from back-up QB Kirk Cousins, but everything’s gone to heck in a handbasket since then. Injuries have turned Washington into a glorified WLAF throwback – Montreal Machine, anyone? Cousins was a puddle of goo in last week’s 45-14 loss to the New York Giants. And the Week 5 NFL betting lines opened with Washington as an eight-point home dog for Monday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) against the rested Seahawks.

Game-by-Game Predictions for all Week 5 NFL Matchups

Fair and Balanced
As is often the case, Seattle was the sharp pick at the open, with 61 percent of bettors willing to lay those eight points at +105 vigorish. But that changed Monday morning when the football odds moved to Seattle –9 (+110); the pendulum swung toward Washington at 53 percent, and by late Monday night, the action was pretty much balanced at –8.5 (+115).

Did we say “balanced”? Hilarious. The betting public might be 51/49 on Seattle as individual human beings, but according to our expanded consensus figures at press time, nearly all the money in play (97 percent) is on the Seahawks. The average bet size on Seattle is $483. The average bet size on Washington is… drum roll please… 16 bucks.

So why have the football odds barely moved for this matchup? There’s hardly any difference among those three NFL lines – nine is the least magical number there is between zero and 21, not including zero itself. According to Wizard of Odds, buying a half-point onto or away from nine should carry a fair price of 2.2 cents. That’s nearly a tenth the cost of moving onto or away from the supremely magical three points (21.4 cents).

 

No. 5 in Your Hearts
No need to rush into things. There’s a long way to go before we reach the weekend, and while bashing Washington is quite fashionable these days, this is still a more public team than the defending Super Bowl champions. In fact, we should take a moment to appreciate the things that are going right. The running game is excellent: No. 5 in the league in efficiency after four weeks, with Alfred Morris (4.5 yards per carry) doing most of the heavy lifting and Roy Helu (5.3 yards per carry, 10 catches) providing support.

Washington also ranks No. 5 in rushing defense, but that can’t possibly last. It’s like someone took a wrecking ball to the roster; the Giants trampled all over the remains last Thursday, running for 154 yards – even Peyton Hillis got in on the act. The only good thing about that game for Washington is the extra rest in between games. Oh, right: Seattle’s on a bye week.

The Seahawks are nonetheless laying some serious points at the Fed. Is it too many points? They did beat Washington 24-14 as 3-point road faves during the 2013 playoffs, and that was when Robert Griffin III still had two legs. Those looking to back Seattle with their NFL picks still might want to hold off a few days, though, just in case a valuable point gets shaved off that spread.

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