NFL Picks: Seahakws are in a Tough Spot Week 5 vs. 4-0 Bengals

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, October 7, 2015 6:06 PM GMT

The Bengals are undefeated heading into their Week 5 matchup against the Seahawks.  NFL odds have the home team as FG favorites, but are they favorites for our NFL picks? 

Seahawks and Bengals in Early intriguing Matchup
The undefeated Bengals (4-0) will host the two time defending NFC champion Seahawks (2-2) on Sunday. The opening kickoff at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati is slated for 1:00 PM ET. Current (10/6) NFL betting odds indicate that Cincinnati is a 2.5 to 3.0 point favorite, and the total is either 43.0 or 43.5.

 

Struggling Seattle Offense
The Seattle Seahawks offense has averaged an unimpressive 278.7 yards in their first four games. The crux of their problems has to do with a relatively inexperienced offensive line, evidenced by Russell Wilson being sacked 18 times already. In Monday’s narrow 13-10 home win over Detroit, Wilson was sacked 6 times, and if it weren’t for his mobility that number could’ve very easily approached 10. Wilson also fumbled twice in last night’s game as a result of pressure, and one of those was returned for a Lions touchdown. Seattle was extremely lucky to come away with a win on Monday. Detroit’s star wide receiver Calvin Johnson fumbled just before crossing the goal line for what would’ve been the go ahead score, and that huge turnover came with less than two minutes left to play. On a positive note, Seattle’s defense has been outstanding during the past two weeks, and was further bolstered by the return of all pro secondary standout Cam Chancellor who ended his holdout due to contractual issues.

 

An impressive Start to the Season
Cincinnati hasn’t only won all four of their games in 2014 they’ve also covered all of those as well. The highly criticized Andy Dalton has performed brilliantly thus far, completing 67.2% of his attempts, for 1187 yards, while tossing 9 touchdown passes, and being intercepted only once. The Bengals offense is averaging a stellar 30.2 points and 422.0 yards per game.

 

Final Analysis
The Bengals are an extremely profitable 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 home games, including 9-1 SU&ATS as a favorite or underdog of 5.5 or less.

As good as Seattle is they’ve been only 5-5 in their last ten away games. This will also be an extremely tough spot for them above and beyond playing a top notch opponent. They’ll be playing on short rest following Monday’s home game, and traveling across three time zones to play in a 10:00 AM PT start. Star running back Marshawn Lynch remains questionable due to an ankle injury, and veteran backup Fred Jackson went down with an apparent ankle injury during Monday’s win.

I’m leaning toward the small home favorite for one my NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Play on Bengals -2.5 (-115) at Pinnacle