Tom Brady Passing Yards 273 ½
- Over (-110)
- Under (-110)
The NFL odds board on this prop is dealing what I consider to be a rather ambitious number for TB12. The Chargers are going to generate enormous pressure from the interior, courtesy of the dynamic duo of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, and Brady won’t have the luxury of a whole lot of time in the pocket. But when he does scan the field, who does he have? Rob Gronkowski does not resemble the Gronk we’ve come to know and love in in New England while Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, and Cordarrelle Patterson will be names that are only vaguely familiar to Pats’ fans a few years from now. The only deep threat the Pats had was Josh Gordon and he’s no longer with the team. Essentially Brady is down to Julian Edelman, who will be covered like a cheap suit by Desmond King, and James White out of the backfield. I don’t see Tom Terrific racking up huge numbers if LA can maintain pressure from their edge rushers and interior linemen. Go low.
Free NFL Pick: Under 273 ½ (-110) passing yards for Tom Brady
Will Melvin Gordon Score a Touchdown?
- Yes (-120)
- No (+100)
The Patriots’ defense has done a fine job recently of limiting the points scored against them but this is not an elite defense by any stretch of the imagination. The linebacking corps is a weakness and Melvin Gordon should eat them alive on slant routes out of the backfield and over the middle. He should also be able to routinely cut a swath of real estate against New England’s run-stop unit. Gordon has averaged nearly a touchdown per game and there’s nothing about this Patriots’ defense that will pose more of a threat to that average than any other he’s faced this season.
Free NFL Pick: Yes (-120) Gordon will score a touchdown.
Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards 54½
- Over (+120)
- Under (-140)
The Saints crushed the Eagles earlier in the season and Alvin Kamara racked up 71 yards of rushing. However, the Saints have failed to cover the number in three of their last four games and have not looked like the world-beaters that they were earlier in the season. Philadelphia has tightened up defensively and will have Jordan Hicks in uniform for this one who was sorely missed in the first meeting. Kamara averages 58 rushing yards per game but he’s also used as a pass catching weapon with his teammate, Mark Ingram, vulturing carries. This game will be far closer than the first and Kamara won’t crack 40 yards rushing in this one.
Free NFL Pick: Under (-140) 54 ½ yards rushing for Alvin Kamara
Nick Foles Pass Attempts 39½
- Over (-115)
- Under (-115)
There will be plenty of motivation for the Eagles to give the Saints a game after the thorough ass-kicking they received when they bowed 48-7 in mid-November. This is a no-lose situation for Nick Foles as he has once again magically engineered the resurrection of this Eagles after taking over for an ailing Carson Wentz. The Saints defense does one thing really well and that’s stopping the run. New Orleans surrenders just 80.2 rushing yards per game, trailing only the Bears. The only way for the Eagles to keep pace with an explosive Saints’ offense is to go to the air and Nick Foles will be doing just that all afternoon long. Go over 39 ½ Nick Foles’ passing attempts in your NFL picks on Sunday.
Free NFL Pick: Over 39 ½ (-115) pass attempts for Nick Foles