Week 2 has been pretty good to us, and so far in the entire preseason I am 14-9 ATS. Let’s see what kind of value we can uncover for Saturday in the NFL Odds.
Dolphins vs. Texans
With their Week 1 win, the Texans improved to 17-10-2 ATS under the coaching of Gary Kubiak. That’s a hard preseason record to argue with, and I’m not doing anything of the sort here against the Dolphins. Joe Philbin finally got his first preseason win both SU and ATS in the Dolphins’ last game, and now he is 1-5 ATS in his career.
However, I think the Texans are the way to go here at home for our NFL Picks. At only -3, I think they are slightly undervalued. In his career, Kubiak is a combined 11-2 SU in Weeks 1 and 2 of the preseason, and you can bet he is going for the same strategy this season. The Dolphins got the win last week, but their offense will not have the same success against the Texans, no matter how long the starters stay in the game. Lay the points.
My Pick: Texans -3
Last week we cashed the Broncos as underdogs, and they were one of ten underdogs that cashed in Week 1 of the preseason. After opening at +4 in the Betting Odds, the Broncos are now +5 this week against the Hawks. Even though Pete Carroll has been very good in the preseason with the Hawks, he isn’t as good after Week 1. Carroll is only 4-5 SU in Weeks 2-4, compared to 4-0 SU in Week 1.
The Broncos have much more incentive to win this game. John Fox needs to hash out his running back rotation, and after Peyton Manning comes out of the game, I think they will try and slow it down. If Peyton can come in and get a quick score or two before coming out of the game, the Broncos have a great shot as cashing as +5 underdogs. It’s a value play, but I like the value a lot.
My Pick: Broncos +5
Much like the spread in the above game has value, the NFL Odds total in this game has a ton of it. Both of these offenses are awful and both are going through somewhat of a quarterback battle. That will be more of a focus for both coaches. On top of the focus on the quarterback rotation, both coaches are defensive guys. I see defense ruling the day with a total of 39 points.
These two teams scored a combined 10 points in their first halves last week, and I can see a lot of turnovers on both sides. Even though the ‘Over’ was the play in Week 1, these two teams should fall ‘Under’.
My Pick: ‘Under’ 39
This is probably my favorite pick of the day. Jeff Fisher has a great Week 2 preseason record of 10-5 SU, while Mike McCarthy is 5-2 SU. Needless to say, I think both coaches will be trying for the win in this game. Both teams lost last week and the Packers got blanked. With just that considered, the over looks good, but there are several more reasons why the over looks like the play
The ‘Over’ was the play last week, and with these two coaches, the over has been the trend for the preseason. Fisher is 37-28-1 cashing the ‘Over’ in his preseason career, while McCarthy is even better going 20-9, including their ‘Under’ last week. With both teams coming off bad losses, I could see the nice remedy of a bunch of points scored. At only 40 ½, I love the over.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 40 ½ at Bet 365[gameodds]16/227802/?r-1=43-349-192/us[/gameodds]