At the start of the offseason, the 49ers were widely considered by many to be Super Bowl favorites. LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the 49ers at 11.5 wins this season, with the ‘Over’ priced in at +110, and the ‘Under’ coming in at -130.
Looking for more info on NFC West team season wins? Check out our report!
San Francisco has the 9th ranked strength of schedule in the NFL this season, and on top of playing in a tough NFC West division, they have to play the AFC and NFC South divisions this season, which are both no walk in the park. Obviously there will be some easy games, like the Jaguars or Titans, but the Niners will have their work cut out for them if they want to get to 11 or 12 wins this season.
The Niners have a tough start to the season to say the least. Their first three games are against the Packers, Seahawks and Colts, all three of which were playoff teams a season ago. All in all the Niners have to play seven 2012 playoff teams on their schedule, as well as the much improved NFC South teams, who have four teams with playoff potential. It may sound like I think the Niners are overvalued, but it is the opposite. As long as their offense doesn’t struggle from the loss of Crabtree, or if they can find a suitable replacement for him, the Niners will still dominate this conference, and likely get to 12 wins.
How do the 49ers's odds rank against the rest of the NFC West this season?
The Packers come to town in Week 1 to play the Niners, and the NFL odds are as high as -5 in favor of the 49ers. Although they are adequately priced in the NFL future odds this offseason, I think the Niners are very overvalued in their Week 1 spread. I am definitely leaning towards the Packers for a few reasons.
The main reason is the loss of Crabtree. The Niners cannot afford to fall behind early against the potent Packer offense. If the Packers can snag an early lead, I doubt the Niners are able to catch up enough to cover the spread. I think this will be a close game, and I am taking the five points with the Packers for my NFL picks.
The Sharp Pick
Even though I’m not extremely confident about it, I think NFL odds in this match point to the over as the play to make with the Niners. They have a rough schedule, but it is still possible for them to get to 12 wins. I could easily see them losing to the Hawks twice, the Packers and the Falcons perhaps and winning every other game, and even that is farfetched. I think 13-3 SU is the worst the 49ers can do this season, unless of course there are more nasty injuries. The value at +110 is with the over, and even though they have the toughest path of all the 11.5 win teams, they also have the best team of those three.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 11 .5+110
Week 1 Lean: Packers +5.5 at Bet365