San Francisco 49ers divisional future odds update
VH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has San Francisco at -125 to win the NFC West this season. I've already established a liking for the 49ers in their NFC and Super Bowl future odds, and I think their odds to win the division have value as well.
This off-season was a case of the rich getting richer in the NFL, and the 49ers were no exception. The addition of Nnamdi Asomugha is going to make them extremely tough to pass on along with Carlos Rogers on the opposite side. Even though they lost Dashon Goldson to free agency, they were able to add Craig Dahl to back up Eric Reid at free safety and add to Donte Whitner on the strong side.
The loss of Michael Crabtree is going to sting for quite some time for this team, and the pain will likely not cease until he either comes back, or if the 49ers win the Super Bowl. Coming back from a torn Achilles is very difficult, and if he wants to play before the postseason, he will only have 7-months of recovery time after his surgery, which was on May 22nd. All signs point to him trying to come back sometime this season, but the 49ers’ fate for a divisional future odds bet will likely be close to decided by the time he could return.
That being said, I also think the 49ers have some value because of the Crabtree injury. They were actually a bigger favorite about a month ago, and at only 4 to 5 now, I think they have to be considered a solid bet to win their division as well. Seattle scares me a little bit, but hedging any bet with a small bet on the Seahawks could still guarantee a small profit if either won the division. However, I put a emphasis on how the Seahawks scare me “a little bit.”
On the ATS front, the 49ers were still a solid football team all the way through the playoffs. They finished 11-8 ATS over their 19 games, but their value came in strange places. Their road record against the spread was much better than it home, as they went 6-3 ATS away from the Bay. However they were 1-5 ATS against the NFC West last season, the only real time they were not a good bet in 2012. Of course since they were horrible against her division, against non-divisional opponents they were superb against the spread. San Francisco was 10-3 ATS when playing teams outside of their division just a year ago.
San Francisco is going to be a tricky team to handicap for our sports picks this season. I don't expect them to have as much value as they did last year, when they went 4-2 ATS as road favorites for instance. Still they can have a solid season on the road ATS, but their divisional record last season is a little troublesome. Probably the only time will know when to fade the 49ers, will be those three divisional road games.