The Chargers’ long stint with Norv Turner is over, and now the reign of Mike McCoy starts in San Diego. The NFL future odds aren’t giving the Chargers much of a chance to win anything this season, but will they hold value when the season comes around? Let’s take a deeper look at the Chargers’ future odds and decide whether or not there is or will be NFL betting value with them this season.
Super Bowl (+4000)
The Chargers are one of seven teams in the NFL listed at 40/1 to win the Super Bowl this season. Of those seven teams, San Diego is the only one with a brand new head coach and definitely the one with the most questions surrounding them. With a new head coach comes a new offense and defense, and with still a lot of hold over personnel, this team comes in looking like they are overvalued in the future odds. I don’t think the Chargers are better than any of the other six teams listed at 40/1 on Bet365, and I don’t think they will make much of a turnaround this next season. They only had six draft picks this season and I don’t think the current roster will win seven games.
The Chargers are also overvalued in the AFC future odds. The Chiefs are priced way behind the Chargers at +2500 and I think they will be the AFC West’s second best team this season. I’d even go as far as saying the Browns who are +2800 to win the AFC will be as good as the Chargers are going to be this season. I don’t think they have addressed their need for more help in the receiving core, and even though I think they will still be a solid defensive team, when you play against Peyton Manning twice a season, you need better than average. The Chargers are once again overvalued.
Last season the Chargers were 7-9 ATS, and I don’t see then being any better than that next season against the spread. It might take another year or two behind McCoy before the Chargers are back to being a playoff team, but that might have to wait until Manning is on the tail end of his career.
Traditionally the Chargers are overvalued. It has been this way almost since the Turner era started in San Diego with the exception of maybe 2007 when they lost to New England in the AFC Championship game. Even with NFL odds rather low to start out with, I think the Chargers are still one of the most overvalued teams in the league.
If 7-9 ATS was the mark last season, I sincerely doubt they even hit that. I think a fade for the Chargers is in effect until further notice. San Diego is going to need at least two or three years to rebuild and next season might be full of more short-term disappointment for Chargers fans and possibly people wagering on them to cover the spread.