NFL Picks: Saints vs. Texans in Preseason Week 3

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, August 22, 2013 6:40 PM GMT

Week 3 of the NFL Preseason is considered the most important game that doesn’t count in the NFL. We finish off Week 3 with a matchup between two playoff-hopefuls in the Saints and Texans.

The NFL betting odds for this game favor the home Texans at -2.5, with a total of 44 points. Who will win this dress rehearsal for the regular season? Who would be the best addition to our Week 3 preseason NFL picks?

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Week 2

Both teams got wins in Week 2, and now they meet one another in a game where the starters will likely get to play most of the game. The Saints beat up on the Raiders 28-20 last week, but this week will surely be tougher than the vanilla defenses of the Raiders. Drew Brees shredded their secondary while he was in the game. He played the entire first half and he scored points on every drive, finishing his day with over 200 yards passing and a touchdown.

The Texans on the other hand were able to fend off the Dolphins in Week 2 to get the win and the cover. The Texans’ offense was shaky at first, with Matt Schaub being sacked and throwing an interception, but they salvaged the playing time when Schaub hooked up with Owen Daniels for a touchdown. Houston is now 2-0 this preseason.

Both of these teams will likely play their starters for the entire first half, and if that’s the case, I can’t help but be very skeptical of the Texans as favorites. Even though the Saints’ defense is nothing to be scared of, without the help of Arian Foster, I feel the very balanced Texans’ offense will become unbalanced. Not being able to run the ball is a death sentence for this Houston team.

Throw on the records

No I’m not talking about a smooth vinyl album, I’m talking about these two coaches’ preseason records. Even though Gary Kubiak is a very good preseason coach, most of his damage in the preseason has come in Weeks 1 and 2. For the first two weeks of the preseason, Kubiak is now 14-4 SU, however in Weeks 3 and 4 combined, he is only 6-10 SU.

On the flip side, Sean Payton’s preseason record overall is nothing to get excited about. However, there is one week where he is particularly good. (I’ll give you a guess as to which week he owns; if you guessed Week 3, you get the prize.) Payton is 4-1 SU in Week 3 of the preseason since he started coaching the Saints, and you can bet he will be gunning for a win in this one. Last week Drew Brees played the entire first half, and I think we can expect him to do so once again, with his other fellow starters getting a longer run as well.

[gameodds]16/226865/?r3=349/us&r-1=349/us[/gameodds]

The Sharp Pick

Even though the starters will only be in the game for the first half, I see the Saints being able to take advantage early of the Texans. With no Foster, the Texans’ offense has looked lamed. If they can’t run the ball effectively, the Saints will pick them apart. The only way the Texans will win this game is if they keep the ball away from the Saints in the first half. The Texans haven’t been running the ball very well with their first string this preseason. Ben Tate had four carries for only 12 yards last week. The Saints just have too much value as underdogs here for your sports picks

NFL Pick: Take the points on the Saints +2.5 at William Hill 

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