NFL Odds are heavily favoring the Dolphins at -6, with a total of 36 points. Although we likely won’t see hardly any projected starters in this game, should the spread for this game be as high as it is?
Although it wasn’t a great start, the Saints finished up with a Week 3 win against the Texans this past Sunday, and even after Drew Brees came out of the game, the backups for the Saints had a pretty good showing. Luke McCown and Ryan Griffin combined for 18/27 passing with over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns in limited work after Brees. Those two will likely get most of the run in this game against the Dolphins, and if they can play like they did against the Texans, Miami’s backups are going to have a hard time covering this massive preseason spread.
The Dolphins barely lost against the Bucs in Week 3, and even though it is only the preseason, things aren’t looking great in Miami right now. They are having a very hard time scoring the ball, and with all the added weapons this season for Ryan Tannehill, Joe Philbin is going to need to have a good season or his seat will likely be warming up quickly.
Week 4 of the preseason likely wont see any starters play, but the Dolphins are favored here for a reason, and the possibility of seeing Tannehill in this game is probably not out of the question. Make sure you actively check the practice reports and press conferences in Miami this week, but if I had to guess, I would be surprised if Philbin risked injury here to any starter, especially his starting QB.
Sean Payton’s Week 4 struggles
Other than the fact that this game is in Miami, the other reason this spread could be so high is the fact that throughout Payton’s tenure with the Saints, he has not been very successful in Week 4 of the preseason. Payton is only 1-6 SU in Week 4, however, that is definitely not ATS. +6 is a lot of points for a Saints offense that has been playing so well this preseason. On top of that, we have the struggles of the Dolphins in that area, and if McCown and Griffin can maintain the game and keep scoring, the Saints will cover this matchup.
Payton will still try and coach his fringe roster guys to a win or close game. I don’t see any lack of competitiveness in this game, and even if the Dolphins foolishly play their starters some in this game, I would still like the Saints taking six points.
The Sharp Pick
Coach Philbin was very concerned about the way his team finished the game last week against the Bucs, and was unhappy on almost every level. He was quoted as saying, “We didn’t play well enough at any phase of the game to win the game.” Even though he is visibly upset, I doubt he takes the fourth preseason game as his opportunity to fix many things. I think he will wait until this week is over and the team is preparing for the Browns before he starts to ride his guys harder. I’m taking the points for my NFL picks in this game; I just can’t imagine a scenario where the Dolphins run away with a win here.
My Pick: Saints +6 at Bet 365