NFL Picks Saints ATS & 'Over' vs. Panthers for Thursday Night

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 30, 2014 3:03 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 30, 2014 3:03 PM GMT

Join us as we preview the Thursday Night Football matchup between the New Orleans Saints vs. the Carolina Panthers and bring you our choice NFL picks for the game. 

New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers at 8:25 PM ET
Tough primetime setting for each of these teams!  Just four days ago, the Panthers played a brutal physical game on this field against Seattle.  Later that evening, New Orleans survived a must-win victory on Sunday night Primetime against Green Bay.  Now they are in a win and travel situation against a Carolina team with whom they are tied at 3-4 SU for Division supremacy. 

Leaving it all on the field last week, the Panthers came away with a 13-9 loss.  The score could have been worse as Seattle turned the ball over inside their 10 yard line.  Nonetheless, this is a team who remains 12-2 ATS at home including 3-1 ATS this season.  That, of course, is far dichotomous to the New Orleans Saints home/road dichotomy.  The home team is now 20-3 ATS in New Orleans games.  That includes Saints records of 2-10 ATS away in regular season games.  This year on the road, the Saints are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS with losses at Atlanta by 3, Cleveland by 2, Dallas by 21 and Detroit by 1.  In addition, the Saints are a poor 1-6 ATS as Division road chalk.  Thought the home/road dichotomy is working against New Orleans in this contest, the fundamentals speak loudly in their favor.

In the New Orleans 44-23 victory against Green Bay, the Saints held a dominant 193-89 edge in the running game.  As a result, that boosts their ground game stats to 133/5.1 overland operating against a Carolina rush defense that allows 135/5.2.  Not only will the running game be successful for the Saints, it will also open the airways for QB Brees.   In that regard, Brees continues to be one of the best passers in the league completing 70% of his passes for an aerial attack that averages 312 PYPG.  Look for great success against a Carolina pass defense allowing 69% completions.

In the ebb and flow of the NFL, successful contrary handicappers often would look to play on a Carolina team who scored only 9 points last week and against a New Orleans team that scored 44 points last week.  Knowing the following facts, however, makes me a momentum player in this situation.  New Orleans is 13-2 SU following an offensive performance in which they scored 40 or more points.  For the season, the Saints are outgaining their opponents 445 to 390.  Carolina, conversely, is being outgained 379-333 for the year and has been outgained in each of their 7 games this year.

We will stay with the fundamentals here as the Saints break their road jinx and score at will against the pourous Panther defense.  With each team allowing more than 6.0 YPP, I look also for OVER 49 to be a winning selection for my free NFL picks.  This opinion is backed by strong YTD numbers which finds Prime Time games to be 20-5 OVER and NFL Divisional contests to be 23-13 OVER. 

Free NFL picks: Bet Saints ATS & Over at 5Dimes

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Check Out Our Full Coverage For Thursday Night Football: 

NFL Opening Odds Report for Thursday Night's Saints vs. Panthers

NFL Picks: Panthers Offense to Earn Them a Victory vs. Saints

Bet Panthers on Spread for Week 9 NFL Picks vs. Saints

Bet 'Over' for Saints/Panthers Thursday Night Football Picks

 

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