NFL Picks: Redskins vs. Packers in Week 2

Jason Lake

Tuesday, September 10, 2013 1:01 PM GMT

It looked for a while like Robert Griffin III was broken beyond repair. But Monday’s spirited comeback attempt gives Washington a puncher’s chance against the Week 2 NFL betting lines.

 

Week 1 is the most profitable week of the NFL betting season, and it’s already gone. But coming in at No. 2 with a bullet: Week 2. People tend to overreact to the season openers, blowing things out of proportion and distorting the NFL picks market with their ill-advised responses. You can pretty much count on it, year after year.

Panic in D.C.

They were definitely going a little bonkers Monday night in Washington. It took over 40 minutes of play for QB Robert Griffin III to put together a scoring drive; his throws were weak and inaccurate, and the Philadelphia Eagles defense repeatedly suplexed Griffin to the ground. You could just about hear the fans at FedExField shredding their season tickets.

Then Washington’s offense got rolling. Griffin started connecting on some of the passes he air-mailed in the first half, and the Eagles (+4) saw their lead shrink from 33-7 to 33-27 before time finally ran out. That’s still a giant bagel for Washington SU and ATS, but now that Griffin has shaken off some the rust from missing the preseason, there won’t be quite as much panic on the streets for Week 2 and beyond. Too bad. Panic is good for business.

Green Grow the Rushes

They’re not quite ready to throw in the towel yet in Green Bay, either. The Packers came up on the short end of a 34-28 final against the San Francisco 49ers, who were favored by five points at home, so that’s nothing for Cheeseheads to feel too awful about. Both offenses were humming along on Sunday, although there are concerns, as usual, about Green Bay’s running game after rookie RB Eddie Lacy was held to 41 yards rushing on 14 carries, plus one lost fumble. 

As usual, these concerns are largely overblown. It’s not easy to gain ground against San Francisco’s defensive line. You can say the same thing about Green Bay, who held Niners RB Frank Gore to 44 yards on 21 carries. It should also be noted that Lacy’s performance, like Griffin’s, improved significantly in the second half: nine carries for 37 yards (4.1 yards per carry) and a touchdown.

[gameodds]16/226890/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Put Some Mud on It 

It’ll be very interesting to see how the Week 1 narrative plays out for both these teams. Given the circumstances, I expect more sound and rational judgment from Packers fans, who have seen this all before. Griffin may have had a much better second half Monday night, but that won’t completely shut down the talk about his surgically reconstructed knee – or the abuse that Griffin is taking running the read option. 

The Week 2 NFL betting lines for Washington-Green Bay were still pending as we went to press, although the early rumblings coming out of Vegas suggested the Packers would open at –6.5. If somebody does hit the panic button in D.C., and if Green Bay gets enough early action, you might see the NFL odds move to –7. Keep moving to –7.5 and you might have enough reason to take Washington ATS.

Just MODO, but I’m more inclined to grab Green Bay right now before the spread hits that magic number. Washington’s defense has a few issues that need to be taken care of, including Pro Bowl LB Ryan Kerrigan, who suffered a concussion against the Eagles. The Packers secondary leaves something to be desired, as well, but that fearsome front seven (47 sacks last year, No. 4 in the league) looks like it could snap Griffin in half. 

NFL Pick: Take the Packers –6.5