NFL Picks: Recent Trends Point to Saints vs. Panthers Going 'Under' 45

Kevin Stott

Thursday, September 24, 2015 8:42 PM GMT

With 8 of the last 10 games between these two teams being played here falling under the posted Total and Drew Brees nursing an injury heading in, is making the Under (45) an NFL pick a good idea?

Odds Overview
What: NFL Week 3—New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
When: Sunday, September 27
Time: 1 p.m. EDT/10 a.m. PDT 
TV: FOX, Directv 711, NFL RedZone (US), Sky Sports 2/HD (UK)
Weather Forecast: Mostly Cloudy, 30% Chance Rain, 70°, Winds NE 4-9 mph, 73% Humidity
Current Point Spread: Panthers -3 -125 (5Dimes)
Lowest Total in Marketplace: 43 (CG Technology)
Highest Total in Marketplace: 45 (The Greek, 5Dimes, SportsInteraction)

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
This NFC South matchup will be huge for the visitors, who are off to an ugly 0-2 start. 

The winless New Orleans Saints (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) face the Carolina Panthers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) on Sunday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte on Sunday afternoon for this crucial Week 3 NFC South game which will be much more important for the visitors who can’t afford to fall to 0-3 to start the season. And the Saints have a real problem with their long-time, 36-year-old starting QB Drew Brees, who has a Bruised Right Rotator cuff according to Dr. James Andrews but is now reportedly saying that he’s “pretty confident” he will be able to play in this game against the defending division champ Panthers—which pretty much means he will get the start here.

But even though New Orleans desperately needs the Win here to avoid seeing the whole season possibly go down the tubes, expect some tentativeness from the Saints and 9th-year Head Coach Sean Payton (72-66-2 ATS) in the Game Plan and for the OL to try to do everything possible to protect Brees (55-47-2 ATS at Home) and his bruised right shoulder. This intended cautiousness should chomp Clock and create a much slower game pace for both teams. One potential problem with taking the Under here though if that if the host Panthers (40/1 NFL odds to win Super Bowl, Sky Bet) and QB Cam Newton (19-16-1 ATS at Home) get off to a relatively quick 14- to 17-point lead over the Saints (100/1 to win Super Bowl, bet365) here, the Saints and Brees will almost be forced to throw the football every play knowing that their 2015/16 Regular Season future may be at stake. Long yardage gains and numerous stoppages of the clock from around the 3rd Quarter could doom any chances of winning an Under bet, which is sitting at 45 several places Offshore (The Greek, 5Dimes, SIA) here on Thursday afternoon.

 

Total Results: L10 Meetings Between Carolina Panthers-New Orleans Saints at Carolina
2014—New Orleans 28 Carolina 10 
Total: 49
Result: Under

2013—Carolina 17 New Orleans 13 
Total: 44
Result: Under

2012—Carolina 35 New Orleans 27
Total: 53½
Result: Over

2011—New Orleans 30 Carolina 27 
Total: 51
Result: Over

2010—New Orleans 34 Carolina 3 
Total: 40½
Result: Under

2009—Carolina 23 New Orleans 10 
Total: 41
Result: Under

2008—Carolina 30 New Orleans 7 
Total: 44½
Result: Under

2007—New Orleans 31 Carolina 6 
Total: 41½
Result: Under

2006—Carolina 21 New Orleans 18 
Total: 41
Result: Under

2005—New Orleans 23 Carolina 20
Total: 44½
Result: Under

 

Game Expectations and Series Trends
Last season, both games in this series went Under the Total, with the Panthers winning 28-10 in New Orleans in the first showdown with the Total falling under the posted 49 Total for that meeting, while in the return leg in Carolina, the Panthers also won, 19-17, with that Total also falling more than 10 points under the posted Total of 46½. As a matter of fact the L4 meetings in this series—both in Charlotte and New Orleans—have both fallen well under the Total. And, although it’s early, only the New York Jets (17 points) have allowed less points in the NFL this season than have the Panthers (26 points). And when team’s get off to good starts on Defensive, they want to continue that positive flow and try even harder to keep opponents from scoring—a good thing for Unders.

ATS, the Panthers are 3-1 the L4 meetings here at Home at Bank of America Stadium against New Orleans, and now expecting Brees to play and looking at that highest Total number out there (45), playing the Under is the pick here with hope that the Saints won’t screw it all up with their lack of discipline (188 Penalty yards) and sloppy play. With a wounded and aging Drew Brees in there, and playing for their lives expect a more decent effort from New Orleans, if even in vain. And, as you can see above, with the Under 8-2 ATS the L10 meetings here at Home for the Panthers in Charlotte—the recent Trends support this bet for our NFL picks.

Predicted Final Score: Carolina Panthers 27 New Orleans Saints 12

NFL Pick: Under 45 at The Greek

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