NFL Picks: Recent Struggles Hint to Jaguars-Titans ATS Value

Swinging Johnson

Monday, October 6, 2014 1:07 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 6, 2014 1:07 PM GMT

The winless Jags travel to Nashville as they take on their AFC North rivals the Tennessee Titans but which side is the right side to include in our NFL picks this Sunday?

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5 SU, 0-5 ATS)
Last week the Jags came to play in front of the 66,000 or so fans who continue to support the team even though their franchise has hit more lows than a bass guitar. Maybe it's more about tailgating in the warm Florida sunshine or watching something so bad it's good -think Rocky Horror Picture Show circa 1980's. But whatever it is the fans come to EverBank Field and the Jaguars generally lose. It's just the way it is and it is exactly the way it was on Sunday as highly touted rookie Blake Bortles was vexed by a complex defensive scheme complements of Steelers architect Dick LeBeau. 

Once the dust settled the Jaguars lost 17-9 and are now not only 0-5 straight up but 0-5 ATS in NFL odds. Bortles threw for only 191 yards and was intercepted twice. Place kicker Josh Scobee accounted for all the points on the Jacksonville side of the ledger and the Jaguars now have the dubious distinction of owning one of the worst offenses in all of football. They currently rank 29th in passing, 31st in rushing and 31st in scoring. Defensively they are not much better as they rank 32nd against the pass, 21st against the rush and dead last in scoring allowed (33.8 PPG). 

 

Tennessee Titans (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS)
If the Titans were one of your NFL picks on Sunday then you are no doubt bemoaning your membership into the Bad Beat Club.  Tennessee was livin' large and in charge holding a 25-point  lead at one point only to get blanked in the second half and losing to the Cleveland Browns 29-28.  The Titans were a slight favorite in NFL odds over Cleveland but at one point it looked like the oddsmakers had this game all wrong.  Jake Locker went out with a thumb injury as Charlie Whitehurst took over and added a pair of touchdowns including a 75-yard strike to Justin Hunter but then the unraveling began.

It's almost surreal to think that the Titans traveled to Arrowhead Stadium, one of the loudest and most difficult places to play on the road, and walloped the Chiefs 26-10 in the opening week of play. The Chiefs have since proven they are a quality team who positively waxed the Patriots on Monday night in Week 4 while the Titans have only regressed. As of this writing the Titans rank 19th in passing yards, 13th in rushing yards and 29th in scoring averaging only 17.6 points per game. Defensively the numbers don't look much better as they are 13th defending the pass, 26th against the run and 27th in points allowed. 

 

Free NFL Pick
As I write this early Monday morning with Week 5 yet to be completed pending the outcome of the Seahawks/Redskins tilt, the Titans are being offered as six-point favorites according to SBR odds. That number will no doubt change between now and kickoff but let's analyze this as one of our NFL picks though we are still unsure whether or not Titans quarterback Jake Locker will be suiting up. However, I'm not sure there is that much of a drop off in talent between he and Charlie Whitehurst but I digress.

Last season these teams split the season series with the Jags winning 29-27 on the road as double digit underdogs in NFL odds. But when the venues changed a month later in chilly December so too did the results. Tennessee waltzed into Jacksonville and captured a 20-16 victory as four-point favorites in NFL odds. This season is basically more of the same as two lousy teams struggle for survival. 

In his NFL picks last week, my colleague and handicapping sharp LT Profits targeted Jacksonville as a home dog with plenty of bite.  Unfortunately for him, the Steelers took control late and narrowly edged the Jags for an ATS cover. Personally, I just think LT's timing was a week off. I like the Jags with the points because in my estimation the Titans aren't any better whether it be home or away.

NFL Pick: Jaguars +6 at Pinnacle.com.

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