NFL Picks: Recent NFL Betting History Favors Skins & Pats Over 51.5

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, November 3, 2015 12:23 PM GMT

We’re going to take an early look at Sunday’s NFL game between Washington & New England. Go inside to read our betting preview on this contest which concludes with a pick on the total.

Perfection Comes With a Hefty Price
New England (7-0) will look to stay undefeated next Sunday when they host Washington (3-4). The opening kickoff at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts is set for 1:00 PM ET. Early (11/2) NFL betting odds have New England from a 13.5 to a 14.5 point favorite. The posted total at the time of this writing ranged from 51.5 to 52.5. Sunday will mark the first meeting between these teams since 2011.

 

Momentum and Rest for Redskins
It’s one of those rare times where a team was afforded a regular season bye week, and probably wished it came at a different time. Such was the case for Washington. The Redskins trailed Tampa Bay 24-0 at home in the first half during their previous game, and roared back to win 31-30. It was the largest comeback in franchise history. The victory improved their record to 3-4, and they’re very much in playoff contention considering the mediocrity of the NFC East. However, after such an epic comeback, they now have the unenviable take of facing the defending world champion and undefeated New England Patriots. The Redskins have yet to put together a two game win streak so far this season, and there’s a high probability that trend will continue on Sunday.

 

Showing no Flaws
With the first half of the season nearly complete, New England isn’t only unbeaten, but there is very little if any Patriots flaws that can be detected. They’ve scored 28 points or more in all seven contests, and are averaging 35.6 points per game. They’re also allowing just an average of 19.0 points per outing, and have committed only 3 turnovers in their first seven games. New England is 2-0-2 ATS at home with a point per game differential of +19.2.

 

History of Large Chalk & Total
Since 2000, there were only thirteen regular season games in which a team was a home favorite of 11.0 or more, and the total was 51.5 or greater. Those games resulted in going 13-1 (92.9%) over the total.

 

Final Analysis & Pick
Washington has gone 0-3 on the road this season, and allowed an average of 30.3 points per contest. On a positive note, the Redskins are averaging 23.0 points per contest during their previous six outings. The only ones who are capable of slowing down the New England offense in this matchup, is the New England offense themselves. Kirk Cousins is coming off by far his best performance of the season last week against Tampa Bay, going 33-of-40 for 305 yards. He’s going to need that kind of effort once again this week, because he’s had absolutely no help from the Redskins running game. I like this contest to be a very high scoring affair, and one of my NFL picks this week will clearly indicate exactly that.

NFL Pick: Play over 51.5 on Redskins & Patriots at 5Dimes

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