NFL Picks: Recent History Suggests That Redskins vs. Giants Will Go 'Under' 44 on Thursday Night Football

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, September 22, 2015 5:27 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 22, 2015 5:27 PM UTC

What’s the best NFL pick for the Redskins vs. Giants Thursday Night Football battle? The Under is a thought until one thinks about the G-Men’s Defense. So, do the recent, relevant Trends help at all? Let’s take a look.

The Washington Redskins scrapped Robert Griffin III and have gone with Kirk Cousins at QB to start the season, much to the delight of teammates but the real story may be the stellar play of Washington’s Defense. But here against the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football, the Redskins will be facing a team that really needs the win to avoid an 0-3 start and problems, problems, problems.


Odds Overview
Washington Redskins at New York Giants [Friday 01:25] (CBS, NFL Network, Directv 212, 8:25 p.m. EDT/5:25 p.m. PDT): The Washington Redskins (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) head to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey to face the New York Giants (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) in this Week 3 NFC East game on Thursday night. Currently, the Giants are 3½-point favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook but at -4 in most other joints here in Las Vegas, Offshore and Online with the Total at 43½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, MGM Mirage, 5Dimes, Pinnacle) or 44 (Station Casinos). On the Moneyline, the favored Giants are -200 with Washington +170 on the takeback (MGM Mirage). The New York Giants Team Total is 23½ (5Dimes) for this game while the Washington Redskins Team Total has been set at 20 (5Dimes). A fun Prop bet for this game: Overtime? Yes +550, No -1100, PaddyPower). The SuperBook Advanced Line odds—released on Tuesday or Wednesday—had the New York Giants installed as 5½-point Favorites.


Washington Redskins
Only the New York Jets (16) and Carolina Panthers (26) have allowed less points this fresh season than the Washington Redskins (27), but whether or not this success on Defense is a byproduct of Washington’s first two games (Dolphins, Rams) or real progress remains to be seen. Odds are the Redskins won’t finish #1 in Total Yards allowed (234.5 ypg), #2 in Passing Yards allowed (164 ypg), #3 in Points Allowed (13.5 ppg) and #4 in Rushing Yards allowed (70.5 ypg) like they are right now, but after allowing 438 Points last season, it’s a nice start for Head Coach Jay Gruden (7-11 ATS) and an especially nice start for new Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry. Another area Washington has excelled at over these first two games is Rushing, where the Redskins rank #1 in the NFL (171.5 ypg) thanks to Florida Rookie Matt Jones (25 rushes, 151 yards, 2 TDs) and veteran RB Alfred Morris (43 rushes, 180 yards).

Again, whether or not this success continues or is a simply result of playing the potentially overrated Dolphins and Rams—both at Home to start the Regular Season—remains to be seen and this first Road game against a divisional team which has had the Redskins number of late will reveal very much. Washington (4-12 in 2104, 301- PF-438 PA last season) did do the wise thing and went with Kirk Cousins as their starter at QB after struggling to get any traction these past few seasons under Robert Griffin III. Injury-wise, Washington WR DeSean Jackson (Hamstring) is out until mid-October while TE Jordan Reed (Quad; 13 receptions, 145 yards, TD) is Probable and T Tom Compton (Calf, Questionable) is also nursing a hurt. On Defense, LB Perry Riley (Calf), LB Martrell Spaight (Concussion) and CB Justin Rogers (Foot) are all listed as Questionable for Thursday night. With Cousins gaining confidence at QB, Morris and Jones off to nice starts at RB, WR Pierre Garçon (68 receptions, 752 yards, 3 TDs in 2014) and TE Reed, this team should be better on Offense this season with the change at QB and the Gators Rookie Jones providing some welcome new life for the Redskins (150/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes).


New York Giants
The New York Giants (6-10 in 2104, 380-PF-400 PA last season) have had an unfortunate start to the Regular Season, losing late at Dallas in Week 1 (27-26) after holding a 23-13 lead in the 4th Quarter and then falling to the Falcons here at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on Sunday in Week 2 (24-20), after holding a 20-10 lead entering the 4th Quarter. The G-Men have now been outscored 28-10 in the 4th Quarter, meaning that New York has outscored opponents, 36-23 in quarters 1-3. The biggest thing here though is the G-Men’s 0-2 record, as 12th-year Head Coach Tom Coughlin (99-87-3 ATS) and fans and sports bettors know: An 0-3 start would be devastating, and we all heard the various statistics on Monday about how hard it is for even an 0-2 NFL team to make the Postseason.

So it’s simple. The Giants (66/1 to win Super Bowl, bet365) really need the Win here. On the Injury front for New York, DE Jason Pierre-Paul (Finger amputated) still remains in limbo while WR Victor Cruz (Calf) is Out Indefinitely while DT Markus Kuhn (Knee), DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa (Foot), CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Head), TE Daniel Fells (Foot), T Ereck Flowers (Ankle) and LB Jon Beason (Knee) are all listed as Questionable for this game on Thursday night. So much of the onus on pulling off the victory here will be in the hands of Giants QB Eli Manning (34-30-2 ATS vs. NFC East) and star WR Odell Beckham, Jr. (12 receptions, 190 yards, TD) and the Giants shaky Defense (838 Total Yards, #31 in NFL). Because of the 0-2 start and collapses in the 4th Quarter in Weeks 1 and 2, expect New York to come into this one pretty nervous and to try to concentrate on stopping Washington’s Offense first and foremost—a good thing for the Under if they succeed.


Series Numbers, Recent Relevant Trends and Game Expectations
The Giants have been the bet in this series of late with New York winning and covering both meetings with Washington last season—45-14 in Landover as 3-point Underdogs on the NFL odds board and 24-13 here at MetLife as 7-point chalks. New York is also a perfect 6-0 ATS on Thursday Night Football, 3-0 ATS vs. the NFC East and 2-0 ATS at Home under the Thursday night lights while the Redskins are a weak 1-3 ATS and 0-2 ATS on the Road on TNF. All these numbers point toward taking the Giants and with the emotional “need” for a win, the site and the national TV audience (CBS) in Primetime all favor the Giants here, although the momentum, confidence and better Defense will be in the visitors corner.

This is a tough game to pick a side and with the number at 3½ in just one place on Tuesday morning (SuperBook) and at 4 almost everywhere else, it seems this Point Spread won’ drop to -3 by Thursday night, so looking at the Giants on the Moneyline (-203, Pinnacle) or the Under (44, Station Casinos) seem like the best choices for our NFL picks, even with New York’s swiss cheese-like D. This will be the first NFC East contest for both teams this season and really seems like a must-win situation for the G-Men who are 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings with Washington (1-7 Road in 2014). New York leads the all-time series, 97-65-4 heading in here, and with 10 of the L11 meetings at New York—either here at MetLife Stadium, the Meadowlands or Giants Stadium—all saw 40 points scored or less (37, 26, 50, 33, 38, 40, 23, 32, 22, 36, 34), so with such historically low scores in this series when played at the Giants Home site and this being such an important game for the hosts, shopping for the highest Total and betting the Under is the call here Thursday night.

Predicted Final Score: Giants 20 Redskins 17

NFL Pick: Under 44 (Station Casinos)

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