NFL Picks: Ravens Clear Favorite Over Bottom Shelf Jaguars

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, December 10, 2014 7:38 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2014 7:38 PM UTC

The Baltimore Ravens look to continue their winning form at the expense of the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 15. Join us as we weigh in on this matchup and serve up our choice NFL Picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11 SU, 0-6 away)
The Jacksonville Jaguars descend on the Baltimore Ravens as the whopping underdogs both in SU betting markets and against the spread. Obviously, with a 2-11 SU record and just three weeks left on the regular season, there isn't much at stake for the Jags.

Last Sunday, the Jaguars slipped to their eleventh defeat on the season behind a 27-13 loss to the Houston Texans, all while installed as the nominal 4-point home underdogs. The loss followed a rare win in week 13 NFL betting against the Giants at home and it extended their poor form against the spread to 3-9-1 ATS with a 12.1-point margin of defeat.

On the season, the Jaguars are winless on the road with losses to Philadelphia, Washington, San Diego, Tennessee, Cincinnati and Indianapolis. They are 0-6 SU and 1-4-1 ATS with a 16.5-point margin of defeat on average. Altogether they've been outscored 180-to-81. Over the six games, only once did they score more than 20-points and once they were held to just a field goal. Four times they conceded more than 30-points and only one game resulted in a close affair, the 16-14 loss to the Titans.

By the numbers, there's absolutely nothing to recommend the Jaguars for the SU win and very little to recommend them for your NFL picks against the spread. Hefty though it is at 14-points in midweek markets, it's still less than their average margin of defeat.

Baltimore Ravens (8-5 SU, 4-2 home)
Baltimore Ravens are chasing a wildcard spot in the AFC playoff picture, which is tightly packed with several likely contenders. Ravens' hopes were given a boost last week when they beat the Miami Dolphins on the road 28-13, cashing both SU and as the 3-point road dogs for their backers.

Ravens are stuck on a two-way tie with the Steelers on second place in the AFC North, both a game behind the Bengals in the standings. Overall, the Ravens are averaging 27.4-points per game and conceding 19.6 points. Along with an 8-5 SU record they are 7-5-1 ATS with a 7.8-point margin of victory and at home they are 4-2 ATS with a 12.7-point margin of victory.

Over the course of their 8-5 season, only two wins were close while six were by significant margins. Two weeks ago, the Ravens suffered a disappointing loss to the Chargers at home after allowing a last-gasp drive by the Chargers to result in a victory for the visitors. Any misgivings about the Ravens following that costly setback were set aside by their account in Miami in week 14 NFL betting. After falling behind 10-0, the Ravens stormed back to clinch the crucial 28-13 win. Joe Flacco underlined his experience as a SuperBowl winning quarterback and the Ravens et al rallied brilliantly.

NFL Betting Verdict
With momentum on their side, the Ravens can look ahead to a beatable Jaguars side with optimism and confidence. In terms of winning this game, they are the prohibitive favourites at -950 across most sportsbooks, a bet that is an almost sure thing in most NFL betting circles. Against the spread, the 14-points does seem hefty. In fact, only 40% of the public is backing the Ravens at this large spread, the largest on week 15's NFL betting odds board. But we're fading the public and going with the Ravens in this game. Postseason hopes are on the line and with a little help from the mistake-prone, underachieving Jaguars, we feel the Ravens will soar to a big win.

Free NFL Pick: Ravens -14.0

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