NFL Picks: Rams vs. Texans in Week 6

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, October 9, 2013 12:47 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2013 12:47 PM GMT

Each year, we know there is going to be turnover in the NFL playoff picture. Each year, we see teams rise to the occasion only to see them crash and burn a season later. Let's review how we can make money betting these situations.

Read our Daily NFL Week 6 Betting Odds Report for more info on this week's football games!

There are certain teams we have seen on the rise the last few seasons and we just assume they will be back in the postseason and we give them the benefit of the doubt when making our NFL picks. The Houston Texans were one such team, until now.

Matt Schaub Setting New Lows as Texans Quarterback

At head coach Gary Kubiak’s regular Monday news conference, he said Matt Schaub is still his starting quarterback, but stopped short of saying he would start against St. Louis this week.

After becoming the first NFL quarterback to throw interceptions which were returned for touchdowns in four consecutive games, Kubiak cannot sit idly by and watch a team that was a serious Super Bowl contender, turn into a .500 team because its main player keeps making the same mistakes over and over.

Does this mean T.J. Yates gives Houston a better chance to not only win this week, but he leads them to the AFC championship game? Probably not, yet Texans players and those studying the NFL odds will be watching closely, because Houston’s level of expectations are higher and one player should be the downfall for the rest of the team.

Rams Feeling Better About Themselves

Beating the worst team in the NFL should be not be cause for celebration. However, after St. Louis had dropped three straight, any victory is good news even against Jacksonville.

The most encouraging aspect of the win for the Rams was seeing a running game. St. Louis rushed for 143 yards, which was more than they accumulated in their past three games (122), with Zac Stacy earning the accolades. Stacy totaled 78 yards on 14 attempts and kept advancing forward when first hit.

If the Rams are going to move the ball against the better defenses, a running game is tantamount.

NFL Betting Odds and Matchup Numbers

Houston opened as a 6.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks and has steadily climbed to 7.5. With how dreadful Schaub has played, even if he does not start, it would not likely have much of an impact either way for your sports picks.

Depending on the book, the total was either 43 or 43.5 and did not move to start the week.

This will be just the third meeting between these teams in their present locations.

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St. Louis covers by…

Keep working the running game. The Rams are not dynamic enough on the perimeter, thus a rushing attack that moves the chains and stays on or ahead of down and distance, giving them a chance to setup scoring opportunities.

The defense has to prevent the Texans from running with success and force them to throw. The Rams should play tight cover and make whoever the quarterback is throw into tight windows.

There is no reason St. Louis should not be confident and be in attack mode to keep their opponent off balance.

Houston covers and wins by…

Having better quarterback play which breathes life into the offense. The Texans have gone seven consecutive quarters without scoring a touchdown and have only two in the past three games.

The loss of tight end Owen Daniels hurts, but he has not played a full season of games since 2008. The field general has to lead by example and if he does, the play-calling has to provide the team with a chance to find a rhythm and start scoring.

No two ways about, the Texans defensive line caved in the last two weeks (178 yards allowed per game) and has to exhibit more gap control and toughness.

Final Outcome

For me as a NFL football handicapper, this will not be among my favorite plays, but in working the betting odds, I would rather take the points than hand them out until I know the Texans are back on track.

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NFL Pick: Take the St. Louis Rams on the point spread, +7.5 (-110) at Ladbrokes

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