The NFL odds for this game favor the Broncos by -7, with a total of 43 points. This is the largest spread of preseason Week 3; so let’s see if there is any betting value in it, or if we should stay away.
Both the Rams and Broncos have had their scoring woes this preseason, and both continued that into Week 2. The Broncos only put up ten points in a blowout against the Seahawks. Their defense gave up 40 points, and what’s worse is three-quarters of the points were scored in the first half. Peyton Manning was solid in the game after a couple of punts on his first two drives. He finished his work in the game going 11/16 with 163 yards and a touchdown to Wes Welker. The Broncos defense was very bad throughout the game however, and with injury and suspensions looming, the Broncos’ defensive outlook seems pretty gloomy.
The Rams were also held to ten or fewer points, as they played the Packers at home in Week 2. Green Bay held the Rams scoreless for almost the entire game, but a garbage-time touchdown in the final minute of the 4th quarter ruined the shutout the Packers’ defenders were throwing. St. Louis obviously has many more offensive issues than the Broncos do, but both of these teams haven’t been great at scoring so far. The Broncos are averaging 10 points per game this preseason, while the Rams aren’t that much better at 13 ppg.
Big spreads in the preseason can be valuable, but with the defensive struggles of the Broncos, I am a bit scared off by laying the points with my sports picks. Who knows, maybe the Broncos have been playing possum and will come out and hold the Rams scoreless and score 35 points, but until we see it, I can’t lay that many points on the Broncos.
On the flip side, the Rams should put up a better fight in this one, as I see Sam Bradford and the starters getting a ton of looks here. However, the possibility of Denver dominating them is still there. Either way, I think this game will be a lower scoring affair.
I can see it ending in one of a few ways. First was the scenario I mentioned above where the Broncos blank the Rams. Secondly, I could see a low scoring game where it is within a touchdown margin. Both defenses will start to game plan for the opposing team’s offense, and normally in Weeks 3 and 4, the scores start to go down. I could also see the Broncos winning by a few scores, but still not going into the 30s in scoring. All in all, I think the total in this one is the way to go for your NFL picks.
The Sharp Pick
43 points is a bit to over inflated for this game in my eyes. The NFL betting odds seem to not be taking into account that scores normally get lower in these weeks. There are only three totals bigger than this one in Week 3, and both of these teams have scored a combined 46 points in four games this preseason. Take the ‘Under’.
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