NFL Picks: Rams (+7) to Keep Things Tight Against the Overvalued Cardinals

Charles Stark

Sunday, October 4, 2015 12:39 PM GMT

Though the Cardinals have played well I'm going to back the Rams today as they take on the Cardinals in AZ. I like the Rams to hang in with the Cards for most of the game & will gladly take the points.

NFL odds
Across the board right now the Rams are getting a full touchdown against the Cardinals. For one of my NFL picks of the day I will take the points with some good odds on the NFL board of -105. I think seven points is plenty for the Rams who should make this game a little bit tighter than people anticipate.

 

St. Louis Rams
Offensively the Rams are averaging 16.7 points per game, 274.3 yards per game, and a third-down 30.30% conversion rate. Those are some pretty poor stats overall and it simply won't do against Arizona. I expect the Rams defense to help them stay in this game and the offense to finally get on track. They haven't done much in the rushing or passing game, but I believe Nick Foles is better than his numbers have shown so far this year. Another good point, that may or may not mean much, is that he gets a chance to play back in Arizona where he went to college. I like Jeff Fisher to have his team ready to put up some points on an Arizona defense that has not faced a real challenge so far this season.

Defensively St. Louis has allowed 22.3 points per game, 325 yards per game, and a third-down 46.81% conversion rate. Their points per game and yards per game are in the top part of the league as far as rankings are concerned but that third-down conversion rate is going to have to improve if they are going to stop Arizona. They simply cannot allow the Cardinals to keep moving the chains possession after possession. As mentioned , Fisher is a very capable head football coach and I believe he will have his team ready on this end as well.

 

Arizona Cardinals
Offensively the Cardinals are averaging 42 points per game, 391 yards per game, and a third-down 50% conversion rate. Carson Palmer has been fantastic and most of their offensive statistics are number one in the NFL. Let's all just take a moment though about this team. They have faced the Saints who are 0-3, the Bears who are 0-3, and the 49ers who are 1-2 losing their last two games by a combined 90-25. So before we go ahead and crown this Arizona team NFC champs let's wait and see what they do against some tougher competition, and I believe the Rams, although the numbers don't necessarily back them up, they will be the toughest team Arizona has faced so far this season.

Defensively Arizona has allowed 16.3 points per game, 299.7 yards per game, and a third-down 30.95% conversion rate. Again those are all in the top five of the NFL in defensive rankings. Yet again we still have to look at the competition that they have faced so far this season. I'm sure by the end of the season Arizona will be ranked in the upper part of the league in defensive statistics, but in my opinion they are not one of the top five defenses in the NFL. They rank first in the NFL and opponent interceptions thrown percentage, but I believe that is been more a combination of them being good and the opposing quarterbacks making bad throws.

Betting Analysis
There is no doubt Arizona will be one of the better teams in the NFL this season, and they should win today. The odds makers though have set this line at around a touchdown for a good reason. After the Cardinals have absolutely smashed their last two opponents you would think this line would come out with them at least laying 10 points or more. I think the odds makers are on top of this and for one of your NFL picks I recommend backing the Rams getting the points in this spot.

NFL Pick: Rams +7 (-105) at The Greek