NFL Picks: Raiders vs. Chiefs in Week 6

Jason Lake

Tuesday, October 8, 2013 7:15 PM GMT

Getting Terrelle Pryor back in the lineup was key for the Oakland Raiders in Week 5. Let’s see how they do against the Week 6 NFL betting lines and the superior Kansas City Chiefs defense.

Sharpen your football betting picks with our Daily NFL Week 6 Betting Odds Report!

For a team that’s supposed to be in the Teddy Bridgewater Sweepstakes, the Oakland Raiders (2-3 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) aren’t doing so badly. And they might not be in dire need of a quarterback. Terrelle Pryor returned to action after missing a week with a concussion, and he was very good indeed against the San Diego Chargers: 18-of-23 for 221 yards, two touchdowns and zero picks in a 27-17 victory, cashing Oakland in as a 6-point home dog. Got that one wrong.

Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs are doing about as well as sharper NFL betting fans expected. The Chiefs had a little bit of trouble with Ryan Fitzpatrick (duly noted), but rallied to beat the Tennessee Titans (+2.5 at home) 26-17 to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. Got that one right. So who’ll bring home the bacon again in Week 6 when these two teams meet at Arrowhead Stadium?

This Job Is Taken

Looks like the Raiders are getting the early vote. We’re talking incredibly light action here, but our initial consensus reports show 48 of the first 51 bets coming in on Oakland as a 10.5-point puppy (–135). The average bet size for either team is under $30. Makes sense for a couple of reasons: Both teams have performed well against the football lines, and both teams qualify as “small-market” at this point.

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Looking at the NFL odds, I’m already leaning toward the double-digit dogs in this scenario. I did mention in the Raiders-Chargers preview that it would take Pryor’s scrambling ability to get Oakland past the pay line, especially with top two RBs Darren McFadden (hamstring) and Marcel Reece (knee) hurting. And that’s pretty much how it played out last week. Pryor was limited to 31 yards on 11 carries, but he also limited the Chargers to four sacks, showing improved pocket awareness and decision-making. Teddy Who?

Runner Runner

Having said that, that Chargers defense would have made JaMarcus Russell look good. San Diego went into Week 5 ranked last in defensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders. The Chiefs, on the other hand, were ranked No. 3 in defense – although with a remarkable split between pass defense (No. 2 overall) and run defense (No. 32). Kansas City allowed the Titans to pick up another 4.8 yards per carry last week. Interesting.

So you’re probably wondering about McFadden’s status for this Sunday’s matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS). Join the club. He’s officially listed as week-to-week, with some speculation about a return in Week 8. Head coach Dennis Allen is about as reliable as Bill Belichick when it comes to the official injury reports. Reece ended up playing last week, rushing for 32 yards on seven carries – good thing, because RB Rashad Jennings left the game with a hamstring injury in the second half.

‘Under’-whelmed

If you’re thinking about taking Oakland here, there’s no hurry. The sports betting public will likely be on the undefeated Chiefs, and if they are, the point spread will likely climb higher than +10.5 once the weekend rolls around. It’s also worth the wait to see if we get any clarification on Oakland’s tailback situation.

I don’t get these luxuries with my NFL picks, of course, so I’m following the early birds. I also like the underdogs here because both teams involved are pounding the ‘Under’ so far, at 4-1 apiece. Not easy to cover double-digit spreads in lower-scoring games, and the NFL totals for Sunday are floating around 41 points. All we need now is a tornado or two.

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NFL Pick: Take the Raiders +9 on the spread, available at William Hill (Shop around for better lines if you can find them!

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