NFL Picks: Raiders Best Value on the Board for Week 6

Jason Lake

Sunday, October 12, 2014 2:21 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 12, 2014 2:21 PM UTC

The Oakland Raiders might not have much going for them as a football club, but they’re the biggest value on the Week 6 NFL odds board, getting over seven points at home against the San Diego Chargers.

Jason’s record after Week 5: 19-16 ATS, 5-7-1 Totals

Profit: plus-0.1 units

Welcome to the greatest awards show in NFL betting, the weekly Best Value on the Board gala – or the BeeVees for short. This is where we decide which team on the NFL odds board carries the most betting value into its upcoming contest. We put all the nominees in a hermetically sealed envelope, and boy, is it cramped in there (rimshot). Thank you, try the veal. The nominees are:

N.Y. Jets +10 vs. Denver
Miami +3.5 vs. Green Bay
Tampa Bay +3.5 vs. Baltimore
Oakland +7.5 vs. San Diego
Dallas +8 at Seattle

And the winner is… drum roll, please… the Oakland Raiders! Unfortunately, they can’t be here to accept their BeeVee – they’re preparing to host the Chargers on Sunday (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS). So we’ll accept the award on their behalf, and the lucrative endorsement deals that go with it. Wait, don’t play us off! We have so many people to thank…


Black Is the New Orange
It was a tough choice in the end between the Broncos and Raiders, but the deciding factor was this week’s featured NFL betting trend: Underdogs of seven points or higher are 144-130 ATS (52.6 percent) in divisional games since 2002. Even better, Oakland has moved from +7 at the open to +7.5 at select online sportsbooks, with San Diego pulling in two-thirds consensus and over 88 percent of the action as we go to press.

But is all that extra value against the football odds enough to warrant actually betting on the Raiders (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS) this week? Just because you’re getting a good price on something doesn’t mean you should buy it. In this case, however, Oakland has enough going for it to be worth a look. Coming off a bye week is very important, especially with interim head coach Tony Sparano coming in to replace Dennis Allen. And the public’s preference for San Diego (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) has already had an effect on the NFL lines. This is another classic “buy low” situation served up on a platter, with a side order of “sell high.”


Watt’s Up
It’ll be very interesting to see how the Raiders respond to Sparano. When it came to deciding which team had the coaching advantage in this matchup, we were tempted to call it even. Nothing against the Chargers and Mike McCoy, but he’s still an unproven commodity in his second year as an NFL head coach. Sparano is also a question mark after delivering mixed results with the Miami Dolphins.

We’re also not 100 percent sure who’s starting at quarterback for Oakland this week. It appears Derek “Not David” Carr (75.2 passer rating) will get the nod after putting in a limited practice on Thursday, despite spraining his knee and ankle two weeks ago against the Dolphins. Carr has performed about as well as you could hope for a second-round draft pick being thrown to the wolves. He’s scrambled enough to stay mostly out of trouble, eating just three sacks with no fumbles, and Carr broke free for a 41-yard run against the Houston Texans on a nice read-option play.

San Diego has managed to stay perfect against the NFL odds despite suffering key injuries on the offensive line. Sunday might be the breaking point, though. Doug Legursky (knee) was put on injured reserve, which means the Chargers have already burned through three centers this year. Next up: Chris Watt, their third-round pick from Notre Dame. Don’t forget to tuck your chin.


The Five Stars
Injuries/Suspensions/Travel/Rest: OAK
Defense/Special Teams: SD
Coaching: SD
Market Bias: OAK
Betting Line Value: OAK

Verdict: 1-star pick on OAK

Free NFL Pick: Bet 1.4 units on the Raiders +7.5 (–105) at The Greek

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