NFL Picks: Price Comparison for Regular Season Win Totals

Jason Lake

Friday, June 5, 2015 1:39 PM GMT

Friday, Jun. 5, 2015 1:39 PM GMT

Now that the 2015 NFL Draft is behind us, it's time to look at the best NFL picks on the futures market for regular-season win totals. Is this the Year of the Jets?

Good to see you back here at the ranch. Been jonesing for some football? It's already been a month since the NFL Draft, and it'll be another six weeks before training camps open. But we've already got enough NFL odds on our platter to choke a horse. Today, we'll look at the NFL win totals for the 2015 regular season, and we'll lovingly hand-select our best bets to go OVER and UNDER this year.

As it is with betting against the spread, different sportsbooks might have different over/unders posted, depending on what kind of action they've been getting and the adjustments they've made. You can see a comprehensive list right here; meanwhile, we'll go through each of the eight divisions and list the best prices available at press time for each team.

 

AFC EAST

BEST OVER

BEST UNDER

New England Patriots

10, –115 (bet365)

10.5, –115 (Bovada)

Miami Dolphins

9, +110 (Bookmaker)

8.5, +120 (WagerWeb)

Buffalo Bills

8.5, –105 (Bookmaker)

8.5, +100 (Bovada)

New York Jets

7.5, –140 (Heritage)

7.5, +135 (JustBet)

 

AFC NORTH

BEST OVER

BEST UNDER

Baltimore Ravens

9, –105 (JustBet)

8.5, +130 (bet365)

Pittsburgh Steelers

8.5, +110 (BetOnline)

8.5, +110 (5Dimes)

Cincinnati Bengals

8.5, –110 (JustBet)

8.5, +110 (WagerWeb)

Cleveland Browns

6, –125 (BetOnline)

6.5, –120 (bet365)

 

AFC SOUTH

BEST OVER

BEST UNDER

Indianapolis Colts

10.5, –150 (BetOnline)

11, +100 (Bovada)

Houston Texans

8.5, –105 (Bovada)

8.5, +120 (Bookmaker)

Jacksonville Jaguars

5.5, –105 (BetOnline)

5.5, +125 (Heritage)

Tennessee Titans

5.5, +110 (JustBet)

5.5, +105 (WagerWeb)

 

AFC WEST

BEST OVER

BEST UNDER

Denver Broncos

10, –120 (Bookmaker)

10, +105 (JustBet)

Kansas City Chiefs

8.5, +110 (Bookmaker)

8.5, –105 (JustBet)

San Diego Chargers

8.5, +105 (bet365)

8.5, +110 (WagerWeb)

Oakland Raiders

5.5, +125 (BetOnline)

5.5, –105 (Bovada)

 

NFC EAST

BEST OVER

BEST UNDER

Dallas Cowboys

9.5, +100 (Heritage)

9.5, +100 (Bovada)

Philadelphia Eagles

9.5, +125 (JustBet)

9.5, –120 (WagerWeb)

New York Giants

8, –125 (BetOnline)

8.5, –115 (Bovada)

Washington Redskins

6.5, +120 (bet365)

6, +100 (Bookmaker)

 

NFC NORTH

BEST OVER

BEST UNDER

Green Bay Packers

11, +120 (JustBet)

10.5, +120 (bet365)

Detroit Lions

8.5, +120 (Bookmaker)

8, +100 (Bovada)

Minnesota Vikings

7.5, +110 (bet365)

7, +125 (WagerWeb)

Chicago Bears

7, +135 (Bookmaker)

6.5, –105 (bet365)

 

NFC SOUTH

BEST OVER

BEST UNDER

New Orleans Saints

8.5, –125 (WagerWeb)

8.5, +110 (Bookmaker)

Atlanta Falcons

8.5, +105 (Heritage)

8, +125 (JustBet)

Carolina Panthers

8.5, +110 (Bovada)

8.5, –130 (WagerWeb)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

6, +115 (JustBet)

5.5, +120 (bet365)

 

NFC WEST

BEST OVER

BEST UNDER

Seattle Seahawks

11, –105 (JustBet)

10.5, +145 (bet365)

Arizona Cardinals

8.5, –105 (JustBet)

8.5, –105 (Bovada)

St. Louis Rams

8, +115 (Bookmaker)

8, –105 (JustBet)

San Francisco 49ers

7.5, +130 (5Dimes)

8.5, –140 (WagerWeb)

 

Note that some of these win totals differ by half a game, or even more. We've chosen the more difficult targets to reach in most cases; we expect casual fans to overlook the juice and go for the smaller total when they place NFL picks on the OVER, and the larger total when they bet the UNDER. That should make the price even better for us when our teams do cash in.

The big outlier here is with the UNDER on the 49ers. We were already looking at San Francisco as a compelling UNDER choice, given the acrimonious departure of head coach Jim Harbaugh and the curious hiring of possible yes-man Jim Tomsula. The price WagerWeb is offering at press time just cements the deal.

As for the OVER, we return to the Jets, who were on our list of AFC sleeper picks. They don't get to play the Patriots while Tom Brady is suspended, but that's okay – we happen to like Jimmy Garoppolo. More importantly, we like the Jets' chances for positive regression, based on their plus-1.9 gap in Estimated Wins, as well as their 3-6 record in games decided by seven points or fewer. Don't forget that front-office clearout, either. Success starts at the top.

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