NFL Picks & Predictions ATS - Giants To Steamroll All Over The Redskins

NY Giants RB Runs With Ball

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, September 24, 2016 8:36 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 24, 2016 8:36 PM UTC

Teams who outrush their opponents by 30 or more yards are a 74% ATS play. So with that in mind, our expert capper provides his pick on which team will steamroll their opponents in his NFL Pick.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-4) 1:00 EST
Week 4 of the College Football season is traditionally the first strong week of the season.  This year is no exception, as it is the strongest and deepest card of the season to date.  This includes more Top Plays than in the first 3 weeks combined.  Your patience from the first 3 weeks will now be rewarded, as we have increasingly more data to make the analysis.  Not that it has been bad so far with selections on this site for the year to date standing 16-7 ATS (70%) in CFB and NFL combined. 


In the Giants’ third consecutive season of discontent, in which they totaled a record of 19-29 SU, they were at least able to split a pair of games with these Redskins, who in effect backed into the division title. The 0-2 SU ATS start for the Redskins and 2-0 SU start for the Giants is a good indicator of where I see the fortunes flowing for each of these teams this season.  Don’t read too much into the fact that the Redskins outgained the Cowboys 432-380.  For, they were outrushed 30/102 to 17/82, a major indicator of the point spread success for Dallas.  Remember, it is over an 80% point spread play when one team runs the ball 30 times, while the other one does not, and a similar 80% point spread play AGAINST a team who runs 22 or fewer times a game, if the opponent does not.  In short, the Cowboys’ win could hardly be considered phony. Even though QB Cousins led a Skins’ passing attack that threw for 350 PY and is averaging 340 PY, he appears to be feeling the pressure of his huge contract. Clearly not ready to trust the Redskins, a team who has been outrushed 30-15 carries per game and 125-69 RYPG. 


Rather, I am favoring the bounce back season by these New York Giants. Under 1st year HC McAdoo, the turnaround is clear. The G-Men have won a pair of close games, 20-19 vs Dallas, and 16-13 vs New Orleans. With a vastly improved defense, that is allowing just 16 PPG and 367 YPG compared to last year’s 28/421 stop unit, arguably one of the bottom three in the league. Clearly, the defense has improved, while the offense has become more consistent. Despite last year’s split, the Giants own this series, winning and covering 5 of the last 6 meetings. 


Finally, look for this momentum to continue under McAdoo, as game 3 first year coaches who have logged positive returns in their first 2 games have been a recent over 80% point spread play. I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me in my NFL Pick on the NY Giants this afternoon.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.


Free NFL Pick: NY Giants -3
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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