NFL Picks: Points will be Hard to Come by for Bengals & Chiefs Week 4

Steven Suarez

Friday, October 2, 2015 12:32 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 2, 2015 12:32 PM UTC

Should we expect a shootout or a low-scoring, defensive battle in Week 4's meeting between Cincinnati and Kansas City? Let's dive into the NFL odds and see what we can find.

Odds Overview
If you're interested in making a play on the spread, browse through the rest of the SBR NFL section; there's tons of great content, and you'll find some varying opinions on who to back with your NFL picks. For what it's worth, the Bengals are favored by four points at most of the top sportsbooks right now.

Here we're primarily focused on the total, which is currently trading at 44.5 points on the NFL odds board. You can also find 45 available for the taking if you shop around.


Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals couldn't have asked for a better start. They've unbeaten through the first three weeks of the season, having beaten Oakland, San Diego and Baltimore, with two of those victories, including the standout one over the Ravens, coming on the road. 

It was a constant back-and-forth battle in Week 3, but in the end it was Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and the Bengals that emerged victorious. Dalton finished with 383 passing yards and three touchdowns, with a large chunk of that production going to Green, who had 10 catches for 227 yards and two trips to the end zone. The running game did practically nothing, but it didn't matter with the way Cincinnati was able to move the ball through the air.

That seems to be a common theme early on in the season, as Dalton has passed for 866 yards to go with a 8:1 TD:INT ratio in three games. Green, Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones have combined to account for all of those receiving TDs. We'll find out soon enough if the Bengals will be targeting Kansas City with their air attack once more, or opt for a heavier focus on the run with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, the latter of which has outperformed Hill thus far.


Kansas City Chiefs
After a nice Week 1 win over Houston, the Chiefs have hit a wall, losing consecutive games to Denver (31-24) and then Green Bay (38-28).

Kansas City had no way of stopping Aaron Rodgers and company from doing whatever they wanted with the football. A late rally was essentially fruitless and made the game seem a lot closer than it actually was; it was a performance from the Chiefs all around. Jamaal Charles ran for three touchdowns and Jeremy Maclin had a big receiving day, but those were realyl the only highlights in the defeat.

Where does Kansas City go from there? The Chiefs are still out on the road and now have to face another undefeated team in a hostile environment. Still, based on the NFL odds, they should be able to be competitive in this one, and we know they have the weapons to do some damage to Cincinnati's defense if clicking.


O/U Pick
After looking at the different angles, we think there's a good chance we'll see the UNDER hit here.

Yes, there will be a lot of great playmakers taking the field, highlighted by the likes of Green and Charles, but these two defenses have looked excellent at times too. Kansas City has generally underperformed defensively, but they've also faced two of the more talented offenses in the NFL in Green Bay and Denver, so we're expecting improvement there.

As for the Bengals, their defensive intensity has been a big reason why they're 3-0 to start the year. Keeping Charles in check will be key, and while he's likely to still get his no matter what (that's just how good he is), we still believe points could be harder to come by, at least more than others think. So, we'll add the UNDER to our NFL picks for Week 4.

NF Pick: UNDER 44.5 at Bovada

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