NFL Week 10 Player Prop picks
The NFL Odds this week are courtesy of Bet365 sportsbook, and after releasing my team prop picks yesterday, let’s take a look at two of my player prop picks, because it’s a running back heavy for Week 10.
The Jaguars have been one of the worst teams of the last couple of seasons, and one guy you have to feel for is Maurice Jones-Drew. The latter half of his prime is being wasted on a really bad team, but today against the Titans, MJD is looking like a nice play in the prop odds, and for you fantasy team. The Titans are ranked 26th in the NFL against the run, and while they are very good against the pass, their run defense has been wildly inconsistent this season.
The Jags have been one of the worst passing teams in the NFL this season, even with Chad Henne under center. MJD should get a ton of carries in this game against a team giving up 123 yards per game on the ground. On the road, there is no better recipe for the Jags to get their first win than run the ball and play good defense, and 20 or more carries for Jones-Drew seems like a big part of that recipe.
In the Jags’ last four games, MJD has rushed for at least 70 yards in three of those games, and today for our NFL picks at Bet365, Jones-Drew’s rushing yards total is only 65 ½. He went for at least 70 or more yards against the Rams, Broncos and 49ers, and the Titans’ run defense is worse than all of those teams with the exception of the Rams. I see a healthy dose of carries for MJD today, and I fully expect him to run all over the Titans here.
My Pick: Maurice Jones-Drew OVER 65 ½ rushing yards (-130)
Another guy that I have my eye on today is Reggie Bush, who is going up against the Chicago Bears in Chicago. It looks as if Jay Cutler will be back for the Bears, which means the Lions are going to have to be on their game on offense, and Bush should play a huge role in that. Bush rushed for 139 yards against the Bears in Week 3 at home, and the Bears defense has been decimated since then. Chicago has given up 128 yards per game on the ground so far this season, and with the exception of Adrian Peterson, Bush is by far the most talented back the Bears have faced this season.
This week, Reggie Bush’s NFL Odds are set at 78 ½ rushing yards, and I can’t see a way he doesn’t get over that against Chicago. Injury (God forbid) is the only thing that could keep Bush from being a feature part of the Detroit offense today, I fully expect at least 20 carries from Bush in this game, and even though there is a chance he gets more looks in the passing game, 15 to 20 carries is almost a lock for Bush. If he gets 20 carries in this game, all he’ll have to average is four yards per carry to cash this prop. It isn’t as big of a lock as some are suggesting, but I think Bush can bust off a few long runs to cash the over.