After Sunday only four teams will remain in the quest for the Super Bowl, so this week is basically the last big weekends in football left. To mix up your NFL Picks I’m releasing three player props from bet365, all of which have great value in their respective NFL Odds.
Russell Wilson O/U 48.5 rushing yards
The Panthers and Seahawks have been a yearly tradition over the last three seasons, but Seattle has won in all three occurrences, even though the games were in Carolina. However this week the series shifts to Seattle, and it’s going to be very interesting to see which Panthers team we see. If the Panthers’ defense shows up like it did in meetings past, then the Panthers are a lock in their NFL Odds on the spread right now. Along with that, if their defense shows up on the road, they will likely hold Russell Wilson below this lofty yards total.
Wilson has had some impressive rushing games this season, and on numerous occasions he has gone over 100 yards rushing in a game. However in his last three games against the Panthers, he has averaged only about 18 rushing yards per game, with a high of 35 yards rushing in a game this season in Carolina. In a playoff game, with everything on the line, I think we see the best of the Panthers’ defense. Carolina has given up more than 20 points since Week 13, and in their last three games they have not allowed more than 90 yards rushing overall. Don’t expect a big day rushing for Wilson.
NFL Pick: Wilson UNDER 48.5 rush yards (-115)
Julius Thomas TD Scored
This one is simple for me. The NFL Odds have Julius Thomas at -120 to score a touchdown this week, which to me screams that they sportsbooks think he is healthy, and they think he is going to be heavily targeted. Bet365 doesn’t have their NFL Odds out right now for receiver player props, but I’m sure that Thomas will be picked to have a pretty high yard total. However what the Broncos have been missing since his ankle injury has been his red zone prowess, and now that he had a week off, I expect a heavy dose of Thomas in the red zone. He had 12 touchdowns in nine weeks in the regular season, and that was only on 38 receptions during that time. This guy makes his living inside the 20 yards line, and I expect him to have another grab in the end zone this week against the Colts.
NFL Pick: Thomas TD Scored (-120)
Tom Brady O/U 277.5 passing yards
After Sunday, the Ravens and Patriots will; have squared off in the playoffs four times since 2009, and the Ravens have won two of the three so far. However Tom Brady and the Patriots are once again favorites in this game, and if the Ravens’ win against the Steelers was indeed their highlight of the season, then Brady should have another big game here. I doubt the Ravens’ defense is going to play as well against the Pats as they did against the one-dimensional Steelers. Also, outside of the game way back in 2009, Brady has played pretty well in the playoffs and against the Ravens.
In his last eight playoff games, Brady is averaging over 300 yards passing per game, and he has thrown for 320 and 239 yards against the Ravens in their last two playoff meetings. While I doubt he’ll throw 52 times like he did in the loss to the Ravens in their Super Bowl year, Brady should air the ball out in this game against a very vulnerable secondary. Julian Edelman is back for this game as well after sustaining a concussion, so with all things considered, Brady should throw for close to 300 passing yards here so add him to your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Brady OVER 277.5 passing yards (-125)