NFL Picks: Patriots vs. Jets in Week 7

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, October 16, 2013 2:09 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2013 2:09 PM GMT

The New England Patriots and the New York Jets square off for their second confrontation of the season when they meet at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on Sunday. Will the Pats win it again, or will the Jets pull off an upset in this Week 7 rematch?

Our daily NFL Week 7 coverage continues with our NFL Week 7 Betting Odds Report!

This is round two for these AFC East combatants, after New England won 13-10 as 10.5-point home favorites on a Thursday night for Week 2. This is New York’s chance to even the score and catapult themselves back into the division race. Can those making NFL picks count on Geno Smith to elevate his game like he did against Atlanta?

 Rex is Begging, Geno Has to Calm Down

Taking a page out a well-used playbook, coach Rex Ryan did his best Monday to incite the Gang Green fans. Ryan asked Jets fans to be in full throat Sunday with Tom Brady and New England in town, pleading with them to re-create the raucous stadium atmosphere from September 20th, 2009, when New York won 16-9 as three-point home underdogs. "If you make it like that," Ryan said during his weekly spot on ESPN New York 98.7 FM, "we're gonna beat this team (New England)."

Geno Smith has been up and down like a yo-yo, coming off a poor game against Pittsburgh in which he was 19 of 34 for 201 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions, giving him 10 this season and four multi-interception games. It is painfully obvious to NFL football handicappers and those perusing the betting odds Smith has to relax to slow the game down. In his best game of the season versus Atlanta, he was in control and was less fazed by his surroundings. This is not easy to do when 280-pound young men are after you looking to inflict pain, nonetheless, this part of the growing process and Smith has to be essentially as mistake-free as Tom Brady.

New England Winning and Being Battered Weekly

Like all the best teams which have a top-flight quarterbacks, the opposition has eliminate the possibility of letting them beat them, which was something New Orleans did not do.

Brady led New England to a miraculous comeback, in spite of four starters not finishing the game. There is a good chance Brady might not have top receiver Danny Amendola and starting right guard Dan Connolly because of head injuries. Cornerback Aqib Talib and Pro Bowl linebacker Jerod Mayo are more likely to play, but their status will be updated later in the week, along with the Rob Gronkowski saga.

Coach Bill Belichick is to be commended for assembling game plans which squeezes the amount of available talent he has to work with. Each week, the Patriots keep finding ways to win, without always being the better team.

NFL Betting Odds and Matchup Numbers

Depending on the sportsbook, what I found was New England was -6 opening road favorite, which was bet down to -3.5 by Monday. On Tuesday, they were back to -4 and I would surmise that will continue to rise until game time, with the Patriots 12-2 ATS playing in New Jersey.

The NFL betting odds total has been wandering around, starting at 44, down to as low as 40 at some sportsbook outlets and steamed back to 43.5. The Flyboys will come into this confrontation 11-2 ‘Over’ after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight contests.

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New England wins covers by…

Following the Pittsburgh blue print how to slow Jets defense with quick screen passes to backs and receivers to slow or take advantage of the New York pass run and blitzing schemes. This is an area of expertise for Tom Brady and he could excel and burn Ryan’s defensive schemes.

On defense, make Smith a pocket passer and force him to go through his progressions to find the right receiver.

New York covers and possibly wins by…

Being aggressive with the Patriots receivers and making then fight to get off the line scrimmage. This should disrupt an already unstable pass offense. Rex Ryan will have to devise a few unique blitz packages to fool Brady and the offensive linemen and this almost always entails rushing the A-gaps to be in Brady’s face.

The loss of RB Mike Goodson was a big blow, but if the Jets have a chance for the upset, Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory have to be factors to ease the pressure on Smith.

Final Outcome

While a hungry home underdog is tempting, the Brady Bunch finds ways to win and does so while covering the spread. Take the Pats for your sports picks in this game.

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NFL Pick: Bet the New England Patriots on the spread, -4 (-105) at Bet365

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